{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25b060a7-f0e6-4a61-993b-743b07649a72", "symbol": "PTPXH", "name": "Amundi PEA Japon (TOPIX) UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.135, "architecture_energy": 41.766, "architecture_maturity": 82.839, "architecture_confidence": 79.677, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.31, "rotation_up": 45.39, "upward_expansion": 74.59, "deceleration": 88.43, "rotation_down": 28.21, "downward_expansion": 10.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.636001, 57.613491, 56.764914, 55.771407 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 58.740002, "trend_reference": 54.567033, "distance_from_trend": 0.076474, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.809465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.439372, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.79106, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098971, "excess_performance": 0.04566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076474, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060761, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.439372, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014322, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.077911, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08286, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098971, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.918668, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19233, "relative_activity": 1.070591, "balance": 2.918668, "dry_up": 0.934464, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030091, "annualized_volatility": 0.196021, "from_high_reference": -0.005081, "from_low_reference": 0.378873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.567033, "fair_value_reference": 40.809465, "structural_low": 49.099998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.020259, "positive_rate": 0.609756, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": 0.008607, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.098969, "worst_return": -0.093117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.04916, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.052213, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.166813, "worst_return": -0.04892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.083442, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.065945, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.25428, "worst_return": -0.080636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.615632, "energy": 80.55915, "activity_lines": [ 58.009733, 57.313472, 55.808743, 54.871196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.48, "volume": 13209, "typical_volume": 20270.9, "trend": 53.734133, "fair_value": 40.271638, "relative_strength": 9.715489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.968396, "energy": 51.326702, "activity_lines": [ 57.592666, 57.274272, 55.987614, 55.065344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.82, "volume": 9501, "typical_volume": 18306.6, "trend": 54.051267, "fair_value": 40.450094, "relative_strength": 11.298325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.262433, "energy": 50.231644, "activity_lines": [ 57.61, 57.448691, 56.28959, 55.328948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.48, "volume": 25207, "typical_volume": 18250.45, "trend": 54.310633, "fair_value": 40.623747, "relative_strength": 6.545706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.144546, "energy": 34.709676, "activity_lines": [ 57.220667, 57.333472, 56.432424, 55.485641 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.740002, "volume": 19233, "typical_volume": 17964.85, "trend": 54.567033, "fair_value": 40.809465, "relative_strength": 7.79106, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.134615, "energy": 41.765649, "activity_lines": [ 57.636001, 57.613491, 56.764914, 55.771407 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }