{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25b08bc6-675a-48fa-9c6b-02cf00091dbf", "symbol": "DBB", "name": "INVESCO DB MULTI-SECTOR COMM TR BASE METALS FD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.333, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.786, "architecture_energy": 24.653, "architecture_maturity": 23.831, "architecture_confidence": 56.286, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.88, "rotation_up": 46.71, "upward_expansion": 59.82, "deceleration": 63.85, "rotation_down": 19.76, "downward_expansion": 16.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.004667, 24.833818, 24.98381, 24.776043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.37, "trend_reference": 24.505, "distance_from_trend": 0.035299, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.506882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300567, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.267733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.064178, "excess_performance": -0.061447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035299, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041905, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300567, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071873, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064178, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.270889, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 874835, "relative_activity": 0.512639, "balance": 2.270889, "dry_up": 0.511919, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029732, "annualized_volatility": 0.157648, "from_high_reference": -0.050168, "from_low_reference": 0.350147 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.505, "fair_value_reference": 19.506882, "structural_low": 22.26, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.013951, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017375, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.075472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039225, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.092769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.062899, "worst_return": -0.130416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.046452, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.095549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107125, "worst_return": -0.158267, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029255, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032495, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022291, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009794, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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24.323667, "fair_value": 19.332846, "relative_strength": -0.173788, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.796616, "energy": 22.650824, "activity_lines": [ 24.411333, 24.812909, 24.865476, 24.643398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.69, "volume": 986032, "typical_volume": 2024611.7, "trend": 24.384333, "fair_value": 19.387107, "relative_strength": 0.891051, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.593936, "energy": 17.857378, "activity_lines": [ 24.474, 24.736727, 24.87181, 24.667032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.16, "volume": 909946, "typical_volume": 1897477.9, "trend": 24.456, "fair_value": 19.444714, "relative_strength": 1.502534, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.705922, "energy": 10.456387, "activity_lines": [ 24.734, 24.759455, 24.921095, 24.717075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.37, "volume": 874835, "typical_volume": 1706533.5, "trend": 24.505, "fair_value": 19.506882, "relative_strength": -1.267733, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.785513, "energy": 24.653377, "activity_lines": [ 25.004667, 24.833818, 24.98381, 24.776043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }