{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25b78017-e3e7-4ff0-a16c-eda13937003e", "symbol": "301025", "name": "Dook Media Group Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.259, "architecture_energy": 41.697, "architecture_maturity": 70.089, "architecture_confidence": 66.758, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.6, "rotation_up": 25.36, "upward_expansion": 17.79, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 46.93, "downward_expansion": 70.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.414667, 8.36318, 9.007168, 9.551528 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.83, "trend_reference": 10.184484, "distance_from_trend": -0.132995, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.305992, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143217, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.497731, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207361, "excess_performance": -0.214761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132995, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053236, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.143217, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164977, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046903, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.197974, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49375527, "relative_activity": 1.804414, "balance": 0.197974, "dry_up": 1.480786, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100643, "annualized_volatility": 0.515244, "from_high_reference": -0.467431, "from_low_reference": 0.1981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.184484, "fair_value_reference": 10.305992, "structural_low": 7.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.004571, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.005086, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.39645, "worst_return": -0.084187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.194286, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.134327, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.400494, "worst_return": -0.133014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005581, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.153515, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.190062, "worst_return": -0.268189, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.493466, "energy": 87.913588, "activity_lines": [ 8.315667, 8.803705, 9.625682, 10.071351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.07, "volume": 30736494, "typical_volume": 29215234.3, "trend": 10.35315, "fair_value": 10.375169, "relative_strength": -22.836854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.249127, "energy": 81.601025, "activity_lines": [ 8.19, 8.56499, 9.41928, 9.920481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.4, "volume": 33852309, "typical_volume": 26914827.8, "trend": 10.259817, "fair_value": 10.347043, "relative_strength": -28.749541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.38463, "energy": 72.873878, "activity_lines": [ 7.905333, 8.267926, 9.17221, 9.729956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.88, "volume": 48115091, "typical_volume": 26825737.05, "trend": 10.215817, "fair_value": 10.325143, "relative_strength": -12.516366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.980274, "energy": 54.512407, "activity_lines": [ 8.199333, 8.306165, 9.086427, 9.640935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.83, "volume": 49375527, "typical_volume": 27363748.55, "trend": 10.184484, "fair_value": 10.305992, "relative_strength": -16.497731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.259063, "energy": 41.697051, "activity_lines": [ 8.414667, 8.36318, 9.007168, 9.551528 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }