{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25b93081-c2df-48b5-ac4d-115578e1c5a6", "symbol": "6516", "name": "Kingwaytek Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.16, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.578, "architecture_energy": 21.02, "architecture_maturity": 8.808, "architecture_confidence": 49.646, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.92, "rotation_up": 47.79, "upward_expansion": 34.69, "deceleration": 31.99, "rotation_down": 17.21, "downward_expansion": 21.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.806666, 58.085454, 57.395379, 57.704109 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.099998, "trend_reference": 58.508727, "distance_from_trend": 0.010106, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 65.148038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092835, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.455563, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.030189, "excess_performance": -0.471561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010106, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092835, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089782, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129599, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030189, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.062542, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 235320, "relative_activity": 0.612153, "balance": 1.062542, "dry_up": 0.883413, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055909, "annualized_volatility": 0.193219, "from_high_reference": -0.129093, "from_low_reference": 0.126118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.508727, "fair_value_reference": 65.148038, "structural_low": 52.481194, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.010127, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030947, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.148699, "worst_return": -0.069652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019844, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.089059, "worst_return": -0.105678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028504, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.039073, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.272265, "worst_return": -0.035725, 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[ 57.226667, 56.91263, 56.899633, 57.64001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.900002, "volume": 214239, "typical_volume": 347030.4, "trend": 58.657623, "fair_value": 65.365974, "relative_strength": -30.906264, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.310251, "energy": 10.124176, "activity_lines": [ 57.180001, 56.984207, 56.856461, 57.519787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.099998, "volume": 820802, "typical_volume": 378758.5, "trend": 58.685394, "fair_value": 65.25186, "relative_strength": -26.658772, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.825463, "energy": 11.470844, "activity_lines": [ 58.44, 57.777525, 57.226117, 57.67736 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 59.099998, "volume": 235320, "typical_volume": 384414.0, "trend": 58.508727, "fair_value": 65.148038, "relative_strength": -30.455563, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.578069, "energy": 21.019968, "activity_lines": [ 58.806666, 58.085454, 57.395379, 57.704109 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }