{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25b9bb0c-52b3-4cf0-9701-bce96a376752", "symbol": "002736", "name": "Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.751, "architecture_energy": 26.938, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.732, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.79, "rotation_up": 27.28, "upward_expansion": 19.85, "deceleration": 46.45, "rotation_down": 28.93, "downward_expansion": 56.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.141333, 10.10694, 10.143841, 10.497685 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.1, "trend_reference": 11.066768, "distance_from_trend": -0.087358, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.344568, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023642, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.224841, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.188103, "excess_performance": -0.195503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087667, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023642, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039951, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125949, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.622112, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116394904, "relative_activity": 0.855321, "balance": 0.622112, "dry_up": 1.106868, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043546, "annualized_volatility": 0.245976, "from_high_reference": -0.372306, "from_low_reference": 0.056453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.066768, "fair_value_reference": 10.344568, "structural_low": 9.560293, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.006568, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.009952, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.103939, "worst_return": -0.100394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047576, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.047715, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.148169, "worst_return": -0.165504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032165, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.039873, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.315014, "worst_return": -0.188103, "sufficient": true }, { 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11.445524, "fair_value": 10.298672, "relative_strength": -27.275042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.690402, "energy": 38.339022, "activity_lines": [ 10.082506, 9.982751, 10.32801, 10.799415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.1, "volume": 181109675, "typical_volume": 150041670.65, "trend": 11.359257, "fair_value": 10.311177, "relative_strength": -19.137205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.822178, "energy": 32.020265, "activity_lines": [ 10.105333, 10.006086, 10.262098, 10.712607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.03, "volume": 170003702, "typical_volume": 149389031.65, "trend": 11.258091, "fair_value": 10.322037, "relative_strength": -19.420622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.706411, "energy": 32.159466, "activity_lines": [ 10.092667, 10.021804, 10.201235, 10.626849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.32, "volume": 134996989, "typical_volume": 149854721.45, "trend": 11.163947, "fair_value": 10.334097, "relative_strength": -15.008106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.769171, "energy": 29.474137, "activity_lines": [ 10.164667, 10.089611, 10.178514, 10.566327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.1, "volume": 116394904, "typical_volume": 136083341.05, "trend": 11.066768, "fair_value": 10.344568, "relative_strength": -20.224841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.750698, "energy": 26.937852, "activity_lines": [ 10.141333, 10.10694, 10.143841, 10.497685 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }