{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25bcedb0-041a-4b89-a84d-48dc93847ddf", "symbol": "ENERGYDEV", "name": "Energy Development Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.311, "architecture_energy": 12.258, "architecture_maturity": 26.014, "architecture_confidence": 58.559, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.61, "rotation_up": 36.09, "upward_expansion": 61.45, "deceleration": 74.65, "rotation_down": 21.99, "downward_expansion": 13.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.850666, 16.911818, 16.853428, 16.678839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.5, "trend_reference": 16.673333, "distance_from_trend": -0.010396, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.270256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.224269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.07494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049539, "excess_performance": -0.00583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.224269, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017571, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049539, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.767415, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111977, "relative_activity": 0.809033, "balance": 0.767415, "dry_up": 0.831947, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081259, "annualized_volatility": 0.349808, "from_high_reference": -0.444257, "from_low_reference": 0.254753 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.673333, "fair_value_reference": 21.270256, "structural_low": 13.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.01301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003893, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.451737, "worst_return": -0.152941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.038414, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.051587, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 1.888889, "worst_return": -0.263119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.023218, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.109898, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.933333, "worst_return": -0.283075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055981, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.12568, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.608889, "worst_return": -0.250113, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00192, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.258366, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.310398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007237, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.109411, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131903, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134766, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060057, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023669, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.15, "volume": 198821, "typical_volume": 383462.15, "trend": 17.461667, "fair_value": 15.403205, "relative_strength": -16.708168, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": 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"down", "direction": 0.196535, "energy": 2.380257, "activity_lines": [ 16.946, 16.856364, 16.614095, 16.684581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.91, "volume": 178684, "typical_volume": 150835.0, "trend": 17.023667, "fair_value": 21.266859, "relative_strength": -5.754396, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.52688, "energy": 8.356647, "activity_lines": [ 16.963333, 16.862364, 16.666857, 16.670151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.059999, "volume": 131740, "typical_volume": 150264.45, "trend": 16.935, "fair_value": 21.267564, "relative_strength": -5.014928, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.229606, "energy": 16.030341, "activity_lines": [ 17.043333, 16.901091, 16.732809, 16.672495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.450001, "volume": 144027, "typical_volume": 150359.25, "trend": 16.88, "fair_value": 21.272051, "relative_strength": -0.318795, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.154637, "energy": 29.246716, "activity_lines": [ 17.214, 17.015818, 16.83381, 16.70572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.719999, "volume": 72850, "typical_volume": 146064.05, "trend": 16.756667, "fair_value": 21.271538, "relative_strength": -6.496318, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.434554, "energy": 13.941547, "activity_lines": [ 17.083333, 16.982182, 16.857095, 16.695398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.5, "volume": 111977, "typical_volume": 138408.5, "trend": 16.673333, "fair_value": 21.270256, "relative_strength": -8.07494, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.31053, "energy": 12.25755, "activity_lines": [ 16.850666, 16.911818, 16.853428, 16.678839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }