{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25bcf6fb-ea70-4b6d-96d5-462aa05d549f", "symbol": "600390", "name": "Minmetals Capital Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.685, "architecture_energy": 20.573, "architecture_maturity": 97.934, "architecture_confidence": 63.05, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.92, "rotation_up": 34.17, "upward_expansion": 20.91, "deceleration": 44.11, "rotation_down": 19.08, "downward_expansion": 52.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.899333, 4.817442, 4.853665, 4.99373 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.89, "trend_reference": 5.211383, "distance_from_trend": -0.061669, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.352954, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.086486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.597069, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.151042, "excess_performance": -0.107838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061669, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054149, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.086486, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063505, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105971, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055162, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151042, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.671082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 157377434, "relative_activity": 1.214667, "balance": 0.671082, "dry_up": 1.584538, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054989, "annualized_volatility": 0.171078, "from_high_reference": -0.265033, "from_low_reference": 0.092253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.211383, "fair_value_reference": 5.352954, "structural_low": 4.476985, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.008734, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.011455, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.659204, "worst_return": -0.091603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.013834, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.008107, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.746731, "worst_return": -0.087786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006826, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.053253, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.659455, "worst_return": -0.143369, "sufficient": 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[ 4.687316, 4.707923, 4.908979, 5.08828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.83, "volume": 249091064, "typical_volume": 136424127.35, "trend": 5.275049, "fair_value": 5.359716, "relative_strength": -9.321903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.426612, "energy": 38.161889, "activity_lines": [ 4.743774, 4.716073, 4.882877, 5.058277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.85, "volume": 237852095, "typical_volume": 135293765.55, "trend": 5.252049, "fair_value": 5.357013, "relative_strength": -9.480019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.800447, "energy": 26.459882, "activity_lines": [ 4.794, 4.735944, 4.863013, 5.030855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.02, "volume": 176877464, "typical_volume": 135564109.2, "trend": 5.233383, "fair_value": 5.35534, "relative_strength": -6.206993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.783269, "energy": 22.259098, "activity_lines": [ 4.884667, 4.790275, 4.863196, 5.015884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.89, "volume": 157377434, "typical_volume": 129564268.8, "trend": 5.211383, "fair_value": 5.352954, "relative_strength": -10.597069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.685475, "energy": 20.572517, "activity_lines": [ 4.899333, 4.817442, 4.853665, 4.99373 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }