{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25c02aaa-48b4-4fab-91a2-cb87a360dfcb", "symbol": "ELS", "name": "Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.243, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.609, "architecture_energy": 22.926, "architecture_maturity": 5.27, "architecture_confidence": 48.694, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.71, "rotation_up": 49.13, "upward_expansion": 41.66, "deceleration": 28.89, "rotation_down": 19.79, "downward_expansion": 16.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.283333, 64.917428, 64.018418, 64.047501 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 65.17, "trend_reference": 64.151555, "distance_from_trend": 0.015876, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.805337, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037651, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.187817, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003959, "excess_performance": -0.121666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015876, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018968, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036546, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071878, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025288, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003959, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.615651, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6522196, "relative_activity": 0.909934, "balance": 1.615651, "dry_up": 1.234286, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046231, "annualized_volatility": 0.204425, "from_high_reference": -0.047258, "from_low_reference": 0.135823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.151555, "fair_value_reference": 62.805337, "structural_low": 60.102363, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023721, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010392, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.037741, "worst_return": -0.062784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038511, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029607, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048227, "worst_return": -0.041015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.006513, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.101995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037219, "worst_return": -0.029945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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63.345422, 63.575098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 63.47, "volume": 5551687, "typical_volume": 7849769.6, "trend": 63.433489, "fair_value": 62.78546, "relative_strength": -7.978616, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.499067, "energy": 16.031771, "activity_lines": [ 64.177685, 63.449129, 63.305458, 63.582767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 65.75, "volume": 9085804, "typical_volume": 7145684.55, "trend": 63.617074, "fair_value": 62.782401, "relative_strength": -2.996971, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.193129, "energy": 28.498861, "activity_lines": [ 64.767275, 63.960181, 63.499279, 63.732219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.05, "volume": 10104340, "typical_volume": 7240274.4, "trend": 63.796405, "fair_value": 62.786041, "relative_strength": -1.92057, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.882575, "energy": 40.753386, "activity_lines": [ 65.359333, 64.470511, 63.725617, 63.889182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.07, "volume": 9675945, "typical_volume": 7268949.35, "trend": 63.989662, "fair_value": 62.793305, "relative_strength": -4.253666, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.806841, "energy": 24.989511, "activity_lines": [ 65.332667, 64.703536, 63.861941, 63.97135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.17, "volume": 6522196, "typical_volume": 7167766.7, "trend": 64.151555, "fair_value": 62.805337, "relative_strength": -7.187817, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.60901, "energy": 22.926192, "activity_lines": [ 65.283333, 64.917428, 64.018418, 64.047501 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }