{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25c55cf7-66d3-4ee6-98be-ed64d61521e7", "symbol": "MIQE", "name": "Mackenzie GQE International Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.788, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.378, "architecture_energy": 32.13, "architecture_maturity": 43.986, "architecture_confidence": 82.384, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.7, "rotation_up": 36.35, "upward_expansion": 63.14, "deceleration": 87.41, "rotation_down": 25.96, "downward_expansion": 15.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.223334, 30.257273, 29.867429, 29.385721 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.67, "trend_reference": 28.903333, "distance_from_trend": 0.061123, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.887057, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.369933, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07088, "excess_performance": -0.049541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043031, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232367, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024354, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013699, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07088, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.16985, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102500, "relative_activity": 0.476622, "balance": 1.16985, "dry_up": 0.849434, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031176, "annualized_volatility": 0.202674, "from_high_reference": -0.020128, "from_low_reference": 0.247745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.903333, "fair_value_reference": 24.887057, "structural_low": 25.719999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.054804, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013912, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127808, "worst_return": -0.018201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.197909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197909, "worst_return": 0.197909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 61.648059, "energy": 69.266642, "activity_lines": [ 30.495334, 30.133455, 29.407, 29.012217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.73, "volume": 248900, "typical_volume": 288180.0, "trend": 28.608, "fair_value": 24.721709, "relative_strength": -1.661657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.40655, "energy": 42.710595, "activity_lines": [ 30.248, 30.119455, 29.499048, 29.091226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.91, "volume": 204600, "typical_volume": 257165.0, "trend": 28.714667, "fair_value": 24.77465, "relative_strength": -1.261413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.114934, "energy": 34.991236, "activity_lines": [ 30.092667, 30.127636, 29.605857, 29.175226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.120001, "volume": 174700, "typical_volume": 231975.0, "trend": 28.812667, "fair_value": 24.828644, "relative_strength": -0.075634, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.895537, "energy": 26.388399, "activity_lines": [ 30.075334, 30.15, 29.718905, 29.265893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.67, "volume": 102500, "typical_volume": 215055.0, "trend": 28.903333, "fair_value": 24.887057, "relative_strength": -1.369933, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.378235, "energy": 32.130046, "activity_lines": [ 30.223334, 30.257273, 29.867429, 29.385721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }