{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25c5f1af-2291-4f09-a130-8568b06a67b5", "symbol": "CHRW", "name": "CH Robinson Worldwide Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.592, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -41.125, "architecture_energy": 33.934, "architecture_maturity": 16.898, "architecture_confidence": 76.502, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.52, "rotation_up": 24.69, "upward_expansion": 16.63, "deceleration": 46.32, "rotation_down": 59.27, "downward_expansion": 44.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 167.177333, 176.887636, 178.243665, 177.664403 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 149.345, "trend_reference": 178.051986, "distance_from_trend": -0.161228, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.520945, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315572, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.519123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.250303, "excess_performance": -0.437757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046709, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.315572, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195191, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20059, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250303, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.06023, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10235337, "relative_activity": 1.127249, "balance": 1.06023, "dry_up": 1.426157, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114882, "annualized_volatility": 0.514515, "from_high_reference": -0.289949, "from_low_reference": 0.311264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178.051986, "fair_value_reference": 113.520945, "structural_low": 143.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015171, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000461, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.20648, "worst_return": -0.045112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01404, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.043547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212032, "worst_return": -0.080965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142598, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.158341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.249775, "worst_return": -0.071337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"close": 208.5, "volume": 10788272, "typical_volume": 8297717.35, "trend": 178.455132, "fair_value": 112.179844, "relative_strength": 17.813319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.754162, "energy": 65.888507, "activity_lines": [ 195.316667, 190.187922, 183.125624, 181.072425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 186.505, "volume": 9204526, "typical_volume": 8265760.5, "trend": 179.222293, "fair_value": 112.775081, "relative_strength": 6.344011, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.127431, "energy": 52.409934, "activity_lines": [ 193.737, 190.484131, 183.899214, 181.591771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 147.73, "volume": 21569459, "typical_volume": 8960871.05, "trend": 178.726913, "fair_value": 113.133001, "relative_strength": -16.298712, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.085454, "energy": 4.295912, "activity_lines": [ 179.134667, 183.303558, 180.944338, 179.56001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 149.345, "volume": 10235337, "typical_volume": 9079927.3, "trend": 178.051986, "fair_value": 113.520945, "relative_strength": -19.519123, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.125215, "energy": 33.933564, "activity_lines": [ 167.177333, 176.887636, 178.243665, 177.664403 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }