{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25cc8028-b977-45e4-80df-8ac2f4b0dd90", "symbol": "ANTGRAPHIC", "name": "Antarctica Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.565, "architecture_energy": 53.439, "architecture_maturity": 16.846, "architecture_confidence": 91.711, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.05, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 10.04, "deceleration": 40.66, "rotation_down": 67.22, "downward_expansion": 88.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.75, 0.767091, 0.794905, 0.806925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.74, "trend_reference": 0.832, "distance_from_trend": -0.110577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.208654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.387749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.090384, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195652, "excess_performance": -0.151943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079307, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.387749, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095666, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190904, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195652, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.422165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 580588, "relative_activity": 0.737086, "balance": 0.422165, "dry_up": 0.98893, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099792, "annualized_volatility": 0.328497, "from_high_reference": -0.393443, "from_low_reference": 0.15625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.832, "fair_value_reference": 1.208654, "structural_low": 0.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.05618, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.048704, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.271429, "worst_return": -0.195402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.108184, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.142853, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.384615, "worst_return": -0.303448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.198113, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.164113, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.384615, "worst_return": -0.26087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.262069, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123188, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077586, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009259, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.229574, "energy": 49.435502, "activity_lines": [ 0.769333, 0.784, 0.807429, 0.819978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.75, "volume": 1016590, "typical_volume": 859146.45, "trend": 0.841333, "fair_value": 1.211603, "relative_strength": -18.108145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.231941, "energy": 49.080983, "activity_lines": [ 0.759333, 0.775636, 0.801524, 0.813462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.74, "volume": 580588, "typical_volume": 787680.65, "trend": 0.832, "fair_value": 1.208654, "relative_strength": -19.090384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.565335, "energy": 53.439431, "activity_lines": [ 0.75, 0.767091, 0.794905, 0.806925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }