{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25d1e832-874f-496c-952d-95524f0d38bc", "symbol": "KMI", "name": "Kinder Morgan, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.115, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.577, "architecture_energy": 21.47, "architecture_maturity": 6.893, "architecture_confidence": 79.596, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.73, "rotation_up": 32.87, "upward_expansion": 21.34, "deceleration": 42.72, "rotation_down": 43.21, "downward_expansion": 42.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 553.149605, 554.911959, 555.473958, 558.09777 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 534.5, "trend_reference": 554.551636, "distance_from_trend": -0.036158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 454.826253, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.333132, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.025989, "excess_performance": 0.080656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036158, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037494, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175174, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063309, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063364, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025989, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.011376, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8983, "relative_activity": 11.214032, "balance": 0.011376, "dry_up": 2.812871, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037083, "annualized_volatility": 0.268523, "from_high_reference": -0.130412, "from_low_reference": 0.12465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 554.551636, "fair_value_reference": 454.826253, "structural_low": 500.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.019517, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018076, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.059702, "worst_return": -0.083754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.071912, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.123317, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.096901, "worst_return": -0.107868, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0758, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.167374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133789, "worst_return": -0.162195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.014233, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.12493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12955, "worst_return": -0.209433, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.745082, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10688, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014899, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001202, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.007198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066402, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056905, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063891, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062129, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 284.884735, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 146.55, "trend": 306.832961, "fair_value": 329.736691, "relative_strength": -15.776637, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.177328, "energy": 17.592482, "activity_lines": [ 558.61744, 556.847187, 557.392352, 558.060665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 569.90799, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 516.9, "trend": 553.18326, "fair_value": 453.226155, "relative_strength": 5.031812, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.952209, "energy": 19.575074, "activity_lines": [ 561.648454, 558.943099, 558.057913, 559.303142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 534.5, "volume": 8983, "typical_volume": 801.05, "trend": 554.551636, "fair_value": 454.826253, "relative_strength": -1.333132, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.576825, "energy": 21.46998, "activity_lines": [ 553.149605, 554.911959, 555.473958, 558.09777 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }