{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25d7785e-6607-4a95-a265-90def85c9efa", "symbol": "TPXY", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Japan Topix UCITS ETF-C JPY", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.359, "architecture_energy": 46.418, "architecture_maturity": 84.032, "architecture_confidence": 69.323, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.22, "rotation_up": 48.0, "upward_expansion": 75.42, "deceleration": 68.56, "rotation_down": 28.09, "downward_expansion": 11.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 27058.932552, 27013.052841, 26628.957794, 26170.005494 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27579.380859, "trend_reference": 25610.320313, "distance_from_trend": 0.076885, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19364.867006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424197, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.757027, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100807, "excess_performance": 0.047495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076885, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059814, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.424197, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018032, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07757, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083421, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100807, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.378396, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15572, "relative_activity": 2.14001, "balance": 2.378396, "dry_up": 1.813209, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026697, "annualized_volatility": 0.197127, "from_high_reference": -0.003839, "from_low_reference": 0.372592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25610.320313, "fair_value_reference": 19364.867006, "structural_low": 23103.978516, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.0187, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013475, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.07246, "worst_return": -0.068036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.036416, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.050187, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.117085, "worst_return": -0.088881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.091521, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.050703, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.287234, "worst_return": -0.129714, 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"trend": 25610.320313, "fair_value": 19364.867006, "relative_strength": 7.757027, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.35878, "energy": 46.41841, "activity_lines": [ 27058.932552, 27013.052841, 26628.957794, 26170.005494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }