{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25e72cf8-e09c-4dac-8060-98197ce8dbe6", "symbol": "603856", "name": "Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.025, "architecture_energy": 69.746, "architecture_maturity": 13.23, "architecture_confidence": 80.737, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.51, "rotation_up": 11.06, "upward_expansion": 16.93, "deceleration": 35.11, "rotation_down": 73.87, "downward_expansion": 87.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.312667, 11.889031, 12.1074, 12.365805 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.24, "trend_reference": 12.705884, "distance_from_trend": -0.11537, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.499416, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.80597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.179562, "excess_performance": -0.136358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11537, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022559, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131614, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037577, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179562, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.386416, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19021916, "relative_activity": 1.004029, "balance": 0.386416, "dry_up": 1.023057, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083297, "annualized_volatility": 0.312344, "from_high_reference": -0.25266, "from_low_reference": 0.039778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.705884, "fair_value_reference": 11.499416, "structural_low": 10.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.028333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010369, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.177419, "worst_return": -0.147804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.078536, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.007999, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.142293, "worst_return": -0.160187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06502, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.008996, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.347032, "worst_return": -0.070762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -10.294921, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.652529, "energy": 42.727632, "activity_lines": [ 11.967333, 12.245121, 12.335367, 12.56136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.27, "volume": 12736462, "typical_volume": 19207417.75, "trend": 12.746884, "fair_value": 11.511696, "relative_strength": -7.293726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.884773, "energy": 62.786777, "activity_lines": [ 11.592, 12.063309, 12.216336, 12.463023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.24, "volume": 19021916, "typical_volume": 18945580.05, "trend": 12.705884, "fair_value": 11.499416, "relative_strength": -9.80597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.025422, "energy": 69.746211, "activity_lines": [ 11.312667, 11.889031, 12.1074, 12.365805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }