{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25e9106b-1c0f-4f05-98a8-f8ae710f97db", "symbol": "ALAU", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Em Latin America UCITS ETF-C USD", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.186, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.249, "architecture_energy": 18.765, "architecture_maturity": 14.844, "architecture_confidence": 69.482, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.38, "rotation_up": 41.94, "upward_expansion": 28.29, "deceleration": 33.91, "rotation_down": 17.95, "downward_expansion": 46.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.278, 24.041165, 24.12326, 24.222644 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.295, "trend_reference": 24.29335, "distance_from_trend": 6.8e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.387404, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321285, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.403726, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01834, "excess_performance": -0.071652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 6.8e-05, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040865, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321285, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109661, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014037, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01834, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9435, "relative_activity": 0.304007, "balance": 0.858184, "dry_up": 1.177378, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029679, "annualized_volatility": 0.229276, "from_high_reference": -0.089628, "from_low_reference": 0.380115 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.29335, "fair_value_reference": 18.387404, "structural_low": 22.136299, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00937, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.013356, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.113417, "worst_return": -0.09485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013397, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013636, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.134299, "worst_return": -0.050345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001666, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017478, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236992, "worst_return": -0.126849, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.066976, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.079821, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144091, "worst_return": -0.010138, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035742, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.083196, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079502, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020417, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.291373, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11566, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095905, "active": false }, { 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34448.45, "trend": 23.917403, "fair_value": 18.203756, "relative_strength": 6.419109, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.535654, "energy": 17.185496, "activity_lines": [ 23.732327, 23.714993, 24.126291, 24.180037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.780001, "volume": 60364, "typical_volume": 35672.15, "trend": 24.01157, "fair_value": 18.246247, "relative_strength": 5.093991, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.132963, "energy": 12.730387, "activity_lines": [ 23.753334, 23.698616, 24.079611, 24.171173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.215, "volume": 32132, "typical_volume": 33907.0, "trend": 24.109953, "fair_value": 18.289571, "relative_strength": 6.070743, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.164322, "energy": 8.212712, "activity_lines": [ 23.929333, 23.791671, 24.082819, 24.184297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.629999, "volume": 44231, "typical_volume": 31981.65, "trend": 24.220663, "fair_value": 18.33852, "relative_strength": 5.666881, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.580333, "energy": 15.315087, "activity_lines": [ 24.195, 23.952244, 24.122521, 24.217849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.295, "volume": 9435, "typical_volume": 31035.5, "trend": 24.29335, "fair_value": 18.387404, "relative_strength": 1.403726, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.248746, "energy": 18.764574, "activity_lines": [ 24.278, 24.041165, 24.12326, 24.222644 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }