{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25ecf505-753f-44ef-9ddf-a0a13e1d1281", "symbol": "SPPQ", "name": "SPDR Bl.US Hgh Yld Co.Sco.UETFR", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.451, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.393, "architecture_energy": 34.027, "architecture_maturity": 26.439, "architecture_confidence": 71.429, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.08, "rotation_up": 42.34, "upward_expansion": 64.91, "deceleration": 82.55, "rotation_down": 24.62, "downward_expansion": 14.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.868933, 34.871909, 34.795285, 34.706327 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.022999, "trend_reference": 34.646967, "distance_from_trend": 0.010853, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.620053, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041729, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.38269, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011261, "excess_performance": -0.053379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010853, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003511, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041729, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004274, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011261, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.464883, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1824, "relative_activity": 1.75393, "balance": 3.464883, "dry_up": 0.938026, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005842, "annualized_volatility": 0.03639, "from_high_reference": -0.003613, "from_low_reference": 0.034683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.646967, "fair_value_reference": 33.620053, "structural_low": 33.848999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.024718, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.09328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.024718, "worst_return": -0.024718, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.002939, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002939, "worst_return": 0.002939, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005705, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018351, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022775, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008972, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-14", "close": 31.066999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-21", "close": 31.211, "volume": 377, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-28", "close": 31.17, "volume": 153, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"trend": 34.6385, "fair_value": 33.607527, "relative_strength": -4.710917, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.06768, "energy": 24.962317, "activity_lines": [ 34.812266, 34.838127, 34.757995, 34.68152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.022999, "volume": 1824, "typical_volume": 1039.95, "trend": 34.646967, "fair_value": 33.620053, "relative_strength": -6.38269, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.393417, "energy": 34.027092, "activity_lines": [ 34.868933, 34.871909, 34.795285, 34.706327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }