{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25f07009-ae6c-469c-8317-e75fb801ce7f", "symbol": "ALMDG", "name": "MGI Digital Technology Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.489, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.048, "architecture_energy": 53.274, "architecture_maturity": 15.731, "architecture_confidence": 84.248, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.39, "rotation_up": 16.54, "upward_expansion": 23.75, "deceleration": 55.29, "rotation_down": 71.04, "downward_expansion": 53.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.494667, 10.705818, 11.509333, 11.495269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.08, "trend_reference": 11.158333, "distance_from_trend": -0.096639, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.776269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.317825, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.688454, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.127517, "excess_performance": 0.074205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096639, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046748, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.317825, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289498, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127517, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.429364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39257, "relative_activity": 1.048287, "balance": 0.429364, "dry_up": 0.525993, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069216, "annualized_volatility": 0.471192, "from_high_reference": -0.353017, "from_low_reference": 0.26 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.158333, "fair_value_reference": 14.776269, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055276, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.057364, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.047847, "worst_return": -0.068519, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.066454, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076849, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005981, "worst_return": -0.138889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.064793, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037815, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.037081, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057061, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004498, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.276289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132836, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057944, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 25.299999, "volume": 4542, "typical_volume": 21601.5, "trend": 27.423333, "fair_value": 36.783654, "relative_strength": -15.776888, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.667686, "energy": 26.925259, 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10.992667, "fair_value": 15.204987, "relative_strength": -9.611152, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.921896, "energy": 51.249621, "activity_lines": [ 10.934667, 11.570545, 12.035476, 11.635075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.7, "volume": 7635, "typical_volume": 39969.5, "trend": 11.060667, "fair_value": 15.089603, "relative_strength": -9.718092, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.554051, "energy": 63.829016, "activity_lines": [ 10.813333, 11.308727, 11.924095, 11.616194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.52, "volume": 8547, "typical_volume": 38702.85, "trend": 11.094667, "fair_value": 14.974026, "relative_strength": -10.974303, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.721718, "energy": 69.010906, "activity_lines": [ 10.693333, 11.064727, 11.795571, 11.581312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.82, "volume": 23352, "typical_volume": 38581.15, "trend": 11.139, "fair_value": 14.875115, "relative_strength": -9.224329, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.219162, "energy": 55.011749, "activity_lines": [ 10.717333, 10.927636, 11.691714, 11.563591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.08, "volume": 39257, "typical_volume": 37448.7, "trend": 11.158333, "fair_value": 14.776269, "relative_strength": -16.688454, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.04837, "energy": 53.274232, "activity_lines": [ 10.494667, 10.705818, 11.509333, 11.495269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }