{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25f5a5f1-602a-4e09-83cb-9f7d69d924af", "symbol": "BTCQ", "name": "3iQ Bitcoin ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.805, "architecture_energy": 33.635, "architecture_maturity": 28.698, "architecture_confidence": 68.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.83, "rotation_up": 25.62, "upward_expansion": 16.28, "deceleration": 65.82, "rotation_down": 34.49, "downward_expansion": 61.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.944667, 13.853636, 14.456, 14.725398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.03, "trend_reference": 15.281, "distance_from_trend": -0.081866, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.410096, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.145039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.03534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064667, "excess_performance": -0.185088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081866, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115819, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.145039, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.222741, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24100, "relative_activity": 0.862717, "balance": 0.222741, "dry_up": 1.072132, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058611, "annualized_volatility": 0.358508, "from_high_reference": -0.492402, "from_low_reference": 0.085913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.281, "fair_value_reference": 16.410096, "structural_low": 12.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013428, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.008364, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.125506, "worst_return": -0.117251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019062, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006295, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.178089, "worst_return": -0.233807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.172038, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.057026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.407035, "worst_return": -0.396919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.052971, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.91299, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.544389, "worst_return": 0.561554, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017134, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10052, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043083, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062401, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05417, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139256, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073315, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076453, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023341, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.75, "volume": 100100, "typical_volume": 82255.0, "trend": 5.950333, "fair_value": 7.120984, "relative_strength": 11.501743, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.445477, "energy": 10.919572, "activity_lines": [ 6.170667, 6.296364, 6.240476, 6.160516 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 5.75, "volume": 49200, "typical_volume": 81890.0, "trend": 5.973333, "fair_value": 7.109837, "relative_strength": 10.871685, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.186233, "energy": 19.627096, "activity_lines": [ 6.002, 6.192364, 6.194571, 6.147591 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 5.67, "volume": 71000, "typical_volume": 78255.0, "trend": 5.991, "fair_value": 7.098226, "relative_strength": 5.156448, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.063238, "energy": 34.933258, "activity_lines": [ 5.852667, 6.072727, 6.143238, 6.128022 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 5.74, "volume": 77800, "typical_volume": 80030.0, "trend": 6.023667, "fair_value": 7.08736, "relative_strength": 8.526943, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply 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13.851176, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.852636, "energy": 39.248063, "activity_lines": [ 5.833333, 5.860545, 6.029381, 6.075677 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 6.2, "volume": 81300, "typical_volume": 81830.0, "trend": 6.142, "fair_value": 7.051705, "relative_strength": 19.919892, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.74442, "energy": 14.910978, "activity_lines": [ 5.969333, 5.905091, 6.040952, 6.083054 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 5.93, "volume": 37200, "typical_volume": 82380.0, "trend": 6.136667, "fair_value": 7.043077, "relative_strength": 12.897902, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.146993, "energy": 19.396558, "activity_lines": [ 5.98, 5.902909, 6.025524, 6.069376 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 6.58, "volume": 177800, "typical_volume": 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{ "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 13.82, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 43505.0, "trend": 16.729667, "fair_value": 16.032981, "relative_strength": -39.454033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.797813, "energy": 72.206694, "activity_lines": [ 14.544, 15.419818, 15.423857, 15.895075 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 13.9, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 41520.0, "trend": 16.574667, "fair_value": 16.079583, "relative_strength": -38.349587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.409399, "energy": 81.240501, "activity_lines": [ 14.116, 15.066182, 15.282048, 15.712516 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 13.19, "volume": 6300, "typical_volume": 31950.0, "trend": 16.350667, "fair_value": 16.121955, "relative_strength": -40.654125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.634447, "energy": 88.782389, "activity_lines": [ 13.659333, 14.617091, 15.091429, 15.494151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.72, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 30200.0, "trend": 16.164, "fair_value": 16.167917, "relative_strength": -37.86793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.466278, "energy": 81.779047, "activity_lines": [ 13.585333, 14.324909, 14.959905, 15.32443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.02, "volume": 21800, "typical_volume": 27885.0, "trend": 15.984667, "fair_value": 16.216186, "relative_strength": -35.539585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.994046, "energy": 68.970052, "activity_lines": [ 13.744667, 14.139273, 14.861143, 15.186108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.96, "volume": 22900, "typical_volume": 27340.0, "trend": 15.81, "fair_value": 16.264391, "relative_strength": -34.658235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.496009, "energy": 52.652845, "activity_lines": [ 13.821333, 13.989636, 14.758619, 15.055484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.08, "volume": 19500, "typical_volume": 26355.0, "trend": 15.656333, "fair_value": 16.314071, "relative_strength": -33.193145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.706417, "energy": 39.528272, "activity_lines": [ 13.928667, 13.918545, 14.667429, 14.943871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.71, "volume": 53300, "typical_volume": 27720.0, "trend": 15.47, "fair_value": 16.361378, "relative_strength": -33.575222, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.828455, "energy": 37.50604, "activity_lines": [ 13.900667, 13.833636, 14.542762, 14.818301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.03, "volume": 24100, "typical_volume": 27935.0, "trend": 15.281, "fair_value": 16.410096, "relative_strength": -33.03534, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.805074, "energy": 33.63482, "activity_lines": [ 13.944667, 13.853636, 14.456, 14.725398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }