{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25f82878-643b-4714-9cf7-1ea4a0ce28fc", "symbol": "EME", "name": "Empyrean Energy Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.654, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.69, "architecture_energy": 7.067, "architecture_maturity": 49.987, "architecture_confidence": 71.081, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.24, "rotation_up": 41.3, "upward_expansion": 40.82, "deceleration": 28.84, "rotation_down": 25.5, "downward_expansion": 15.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000623, 0.000613, 0.000594, 0.000601 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.00055, "trend_reference": 0.000611, "distance_from_trend": -0.099836, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.002558, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.785011, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.353287, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.375, "excess_performance": -0.426235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099836, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054661, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.785011, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03663, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153533, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104884, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.127292, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 495644578, "relative_activity": 1.756002, "balance": 1.127292, "dry_up": 0.947207, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.304895, "annualized_volatility": 0.917764, "from_high_reference": -0.65625, "from_low_reference": 1.75 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000611, "fair_value_reference": 0.002558, "structural_low": 0.0004, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.101632, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.562914, "worst_return": -0.385714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.343877, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.327727, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.783134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.429543, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.432117, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.120909, "worst_return": -0.80597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.779851, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.808763, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.761356, "worst_return": -0.826087, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.46, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.301205, "active": 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0.000578, "fair_value": 0.002761, "relative_strength": 10.700648, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.668333, "energy": 9.619067, "activity_lines": [ 0.000603, 0.000576, 0.000577, 0.000591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0007, "volume": 305503081, "typical_volume": 341207290.6, "trend": 0.000589, "fair_value": 0.002706, "relative_strength": 3.991093, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.659299, "energy": 21.804623, "activity_lines": [ 0.000647, 0.000601, 0.000588, 0.000599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00068, "volume": 135105958, "typical_volume": 302905853.35, "trend": 0.0006, "fair_value": 0.002657, "relative_strength": 2.123837, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.865987, "energy": 25.761064, "activity_lines": [ 0.000673, 0.000619, 0.000596, 0.000605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0006, "volume": 133171795, "typical_volume": 285648972.35, "trend": 0.000606, "fair_value": 0.002608, "relative_strength": -9.121982, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.062034, "energy": 24.476069, "activity_lines": [ 0.000661, 0.000621, 0.000597, 0.000605 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00055, "volume": 495644578, "typical_volume": 282257465.75, "trend": 0.000611, "fair_value": 0.002558, "relative_strength": -15.353287, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.689553, "energy": 7.066514, "activity_lines": [ 0.000623, 0.000613, 0.000594, 0.000601 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }