{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25f851ba-e60d-4810-8d64-bf456440ffea", "symbol": "MELI", "name": "MercadoLibre, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.645, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.463, "architecture_energy": 55.395, "architecture_maturity": 7.684, "architecture_confidence": 53.022, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.99, "rotation_up": 68.7, "upward_expansion": 61.43, "deceleration": 22.4, "rotation_down": 17.11, "downward_expansion": 19.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 1600.053337, 1565.240006, 1516.872385, 1513.4228 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1574.800049, "trend_reference": 1542.340007, "distance_from_trend": 0.021046, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1677.487822, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061215, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.896289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054401, "excess_performance": -0.228648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021046, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047127, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061215, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079811, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110728, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.732673, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144, "relative_activity": 1.904762, "balance": 2.732673, "dry_up": 1.438492, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049989, "annualized_volatility": 0.335902, "from_high_reference": -0.266511, "from_low_reference": 0.230313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1542.340007, "fair_value_reference": 1677.487822, "structural_low": 1280.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.054462, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012959, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.054462, "worst_return": -0.054462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.129364, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.144685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129364, "worst_return": 0.129364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.204646, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.26188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204646, "worst_return": 0.204646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131246, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13441, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142112, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065693, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059936, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.146475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02344, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1100.800049, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 15.45, "trend": 1126.140004, "fair_value": 1054.141821, "relative_strength": 8.529993, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.016274, "energy": 15.024915, 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1607.439982, 1553.581816, 1508.68381, 1511.960862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1574.800049, "volume": 144, "typical_volume": 75.6, "trend": 1542.340007, "fair_value": 1677.487822, "relative_strength": -24.896289, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.463397, "energy": 55.395296, "activity_lines": [ 1600.053337, 1565.240006, 1516.872385, 1513.4228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }