{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25fcc2da-269e-4ec9-bba8-4d8d1db8690c", "symbol": "XPD", "name": "Xpedra Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.794, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.323, "architecture_energy": 40.317, "architecture_maturity": 25.711, "architecture_confidence": 95.38, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.72, "rotation_up": 21.12, "upward_expansion": 11.75, "deceleration": 37.48, "rotation_down": 52.05, "downward_expansion": 78.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0194, 0.019836, 0.020129, 0.020869 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.022133, "distance_from_trend": -0.096386, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.034332, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.417448, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.541545, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285714, "excess_performance": -0.34942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096386, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001508, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.417448, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066382, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.203604, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2435065, "relative_activity": 0.341749, "balance": 0.203604, "dry_up": 0.760568, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126923, "annualized_volatility": 0.559212, "from_high_reference": -0.411765, "from_low_reference": 0.818182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.022133, "fair_value_reference": 0.034332, "structural_low": 0.018, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.015152, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02286, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.17094, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.196379, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.433333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.384615, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.383419, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.6, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"fair_value": 0.036482, "relative_strength": 8.022632, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.997524, "energy": 14.811792, "activity_lines": [ 0.020867, 0.020491, 0.02081, 0.021622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 12112365, "typical_volume": 7991183.25, "trend": 0.022167, "fair_value": 0.035889, "relative_strength": -2.655999, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.026132, "energy": 16.791514, "activity_lines": [ 0.020733, 0.020436, 0.020667, 0.021486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.019, "volume": 3784110, "typical_volume": 7893152.6, "trend": 0.0222, "fair_value": 0.03537, "relative_strength": -7.945634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.427369, "energy": 20.142949, "activity_lines": [ 0.020267, 0.020218, 0.020457, 0.021282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.018, "volume": 3345550, "typical_volume": 7615368.1, "trend": 0.0222, "fair_value": 0.034845, "relative_strength": -15.365783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.014601, "energy": 39.550488, "activity_lines": [ 0.019467, 0.019836, 0.020186, 0.021011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 2435065, "typical_volume": 7125294.95, "trend": 0.022133, "fair_value": 0.034332, "relative_strength": -9.541545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.322985, "energy": 40.316847, "activity_lines": [ 0.0194, 0.019836, 0.020129, 0.020869 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }