{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25fce51b-211d-4e9a-b505-05eff0d6366e", "symbol": "XSUS", "name": "iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.787, "architecture_energy": 63.719, "architecture_maturity": 84.961, "architecture_confidence": 60.185, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.23, "rotation_up": 50.38, "upward_expansion": 78.33, "deceleration": 71.48, "rotation_down": 29.59, "downward_expansion": 16.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.047333, 55.919372, 54.939938, 53.543301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 57.139999, "trend_reference": 51.968751, "distance_from_trend": 0.099507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.605511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.310385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.292837, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.153603, "excess_performance": 0.033182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099507, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035112, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.310385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036486, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002928, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023236, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153603, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.47191, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4200, "relative_activity": 0.531646, "balance": 1.47191, "dry_up": 0.974684, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0202, "annualized_volatility": 0.130468, "from_high_reference": -0.009362, "from_low_reference": 0.236529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.968751, "fair_value_reference": 43.605511, "structural_low": 46.209999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.01421, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -1.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.065283, "worst_return": -0.129549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.021302, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.002717, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.182688, "worst_return": -0.062657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.064052, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.033933, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.183623, "worst_return": -0.153279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 43.296425, "relative_strength": -1.218165, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.131374, "energy": 63.931161, "activity_lines": [ 55.718666, 55.570189, 54.263159, 52.940711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.52, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 8405.0, "trend": 51.760729, "fair_value": 43.445711, "relative_strength": -0.083107, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.487348, "energy": 58.183106, "activity_lines": [ 55.626666, 55.609119, 54.543179, 53.196251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.139999, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 7900.0, "trend": 51.968751, "fair_value": 43.605511, "relative_strength": -0.292837, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.787392, "energy": 63.718659, "activity_lines": [ 56.047333, 55.919372, 54.939938, 53.543301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }