{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2600d238-031d-4ac7-85f3-eceaccec6ed8", "symbol": "SQU", "name": "Vinci SA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.078, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.595, "architecture_energy": 59.225, "architecture_maturity": 6.099, "architecture_confidence": 86.469, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.33, "rotation_up": 13.84, "upward_expansion": 15.76, "deceleration": 34.75, "rotation_down": 61.74, "downward_expansion": 84.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.849999, 123.096364, 124.512236, 125.305361 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 125.349998, "trend_reference": 125.504849, "distance_from_trend": -0.001234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 108.773617, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.565417, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037784, "excess_performance": -0.102424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001234, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021256, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059235, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037784, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.971767, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16332, "relative_activity": 1.861462, "balance": 0.971767, "dry_up": 1.823137, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033353, "annualized_volatility": 0.233911, "from_high_reference": -0.097018, "from_low_reference": 0.15458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.504849, "fair_value_reference": 108.773617, "structural_low": 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5.195856, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.907398, "energy": 25.140962, "activity_lines": [ 127.98, 126.787274, 127.161142, 126.469258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 128.050003, "volume": 804, "typical_volume": 7886.7, "trend": 124.84405, "fair_value": 107.90532, "relative_strength": -0.810727, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.500862, "energy": 26.681775, "activity_lines": [ 128.336668, 127.044547, 127.177267, 126.700135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 119.050003, "volume": 19211, "typical_volume": 7323.35, "trend": 124.949048, "fair_value": 108.063399, "relative_strength": -5.075828, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.780029, "energy": 6.154813, "activity_lines": [ 125.500002, 125.657274, 126.352381, 126.326325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 118.099998, "volume": 22386, "typical_volume": 8173.55, "trend": 125.009431, "fair_value": 108.207087, "relative_strength": -4.868775, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.032912, "energy": 49.489716, "activity_lines": [ 122.693334, 124.268183, 125.517972, 125.884451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 118.25, "volume": 7997, "typical_volume": 8045.95, "trend": 125.074814, "fair_value": 108.351737, "relative_strength": -5.685723, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.170039, "energy": 64.876739, "activity_lines": [ 120.46, 123.10091, 124.787026, 125.448359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 122.75, "volume": 17268, "typical_volume": 8398.1, "trend": 125.241643, "fair_value": 108.558665, "relative_strength": -4.086783, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.72622, "energy": 59.259544, "activity_lines": [ 120.48, 122.87091, 124.518547, 125.29837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.349998, "volume": 16332, "typical_volume": 8773.75, "trend": 125.504849, "fair_value": 108.773617, "relative_strength": -4.565417, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.595076, "energy": 59.224569, "activity_lines": [ 121.849999, 123.096364, 124.512236, 125.305361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }