{ "ticker": { "uuid": "260154b9-b0ff-4c6c-91ee-2e0441a9b051", "symbol": "WTIS", "name": "Leverage Shares 2x Short WTI Oil ETC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.507, "architecture_energy": 64.012, "architecture_maturity": 83.781, "architecture_confidence": 74.344, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.93, "rotation_up": 13.99, "upward_expansion": 10.93, "deceleration": 56.96, "rotation_down": 68.1, "downward_expansion": 81.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.9104, 1.036564, 1.036952, 1.269533 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.9475, "trend_reference": 1.879067, "distance_from_trend": -0.49576, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.163069, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.846262, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -74.721852, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.773596, "excess_performance": -0.824831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.49576, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.846262, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018882, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.747219, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05885, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.773596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.270061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82443, "relative_activity": 2.30534, "balance": 3.270061, "dry_up": 1.456249, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189162, "annualized_volatility": 1.349371, "from_high_reference": -0.84581, "from_low_reference": 0.305096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.879067, "fair_value_reference": 6.163069, "structural_low": 0.726, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.04338, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.026811, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.397614, "worst_return": -0.508083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008372, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.053819, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.352091, "worst_return": -0.772043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.071064, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.179231, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054725, "worst_return": -0.773596, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 0.984, "volume": 9791, "typical_volume": 39458.4, "trend": 2.331017, "fair_value": 6.334517, "relative_strength": -75.069198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.584345, "energy": 37.582476, "activity_lines": [ 1.223333, 1.160009, 1.116614, 1.525417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8005, "volume": 65886, "typical_volume": 41740.8, "trend": 2.179533, "fair_value": 6.275098, "relative_strength": -79.438124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.331351, "energy": 60.255444, "activity_lines": [ 1.071967, 1.109245, 1.079493, 1.426674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8135, "volume": 50192, "typical_volume": 34965.7, "trend": 2.01715, "fair_value": 6.216338, "relative_strength": -78.8328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.189729, "energy": 67.560049, "activity_lines": [ 0.9491, 1.060664, 1.050107, 1.338543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9475, "volume": 82443, "typical_volume": 35761.75, "trend": 1.879067, "fair_value": 6.163069, "relative_strength": -74.721852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.507207, "energy": 64.012102, "activity_lines": [ 0.9104, 1.036564, 1.036952, 1.269533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }