{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2602d7c3-2a19-4532-875d-8423dce5192c",
    "symbol": "SRIE",
    "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Europe SRI PAB UCITS ETF Distribution",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 87.686,
    "architecture_energy": 86.792,
    "architecture_maturity": 38.161,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.495,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 8.05,
        "rotation_up": 67.15,
        "upward_expansion": 92.4,
        "deceleration": 46.92,
        "rotation_down": 22.14,
        "downward_expansion": 19.07
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        33.402665,
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        32.542241,
        32.059062
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 34.009998,
    "trend_reference": 31.563068,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.077525,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 27.708847,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227406,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.244728,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.100115,
    "excess_performance": -0.070777,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.077525,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040771,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.227406,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078429,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.042447,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035438,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100115,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.503426,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 308,
      "relative_activity": 0.089587,
      "balance": 5.503426,
      "dry_up": 0.111402,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.015889,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.164957,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000588,
      "from_low_reference": 0.218932
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 31.563068,
      "fair_value_reference": 27.708847,
      "structural_low": 29.052254,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 37,
        "median_return": 0.001007,
        "positive_rate": 0.513514,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.513514,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003385,
        "regime_survival": 0.702703,
        "best_return": 0.067343,
        "worst_return": -0.104433,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.035869,
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        "worst_return": -0.063705,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.148305,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.07349,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 31.9,
        "volume": 5155,
        "typical_volume": 4728.95,
        "trend": 30.040007,
        "fair_value": 26.880534,
        "relative_strength": -2.290719,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.280502,
        "energy": 49.725282,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.043379,
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          30.701336,
          30.413172
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 4666.85,
        "trend": 30.087606,
        "fair_value": 26.924676,
        "relative_strength": -7.538436,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.735255,
        "energy": 39.736066,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.013226,
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          30.69855,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 6280,
        "typical_volume": 4875.65,
        "trend": 30.142446,
        "fair_value": 26.971825,
        "relative_strength": -7.788507,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.787386,
        "energy": 36.909559,
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          31.05454,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 30.82,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 4875.45,
        "trend": 30.194381,
        "fair_value": 27.017516,
        "relative_strength": -7.778496,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.956192,
        "energy": 37.766342,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.969168,
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          30.750707,
          30.544136
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 1955,
        "typical_volume": 4831.15,
        "trend": 30.256267,
        "fair_value": 27.069916,
        "relative_strength": -5.786043,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 63.19256,
        "energy": 34.544962,
        "activity_lines": [
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          30.837946,
          30.638047
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 31.860001,
        "volume": 2916,
        "typical_volume": 4778.9,
        "trend": 30.326615,
        "fair_value": 27.120282,
        "relative_strength": -5.919997,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 67.062271,
        "energy": 43.530893,
        "activity_lines": [
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          30.741514
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 31.555,
        "volume": 78,
        "typical_volume": 4763.5,
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        "fair_value": 27.170041,
        "relative_strength": -6.333458,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.122979,
        "energy": 53.583366,
        "activity_lines": [
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          31.001031,
          30.820765
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 32.400002,
        "volume": 2642,
        "typical_volume": 4784.55,
        "trend": 30.524395,
        "fair_value": 27.223458,
        "relative_strength": -6.533044,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.941515,
        "energy": 75.666039,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 32.400002,
        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 30.656629,
        "fair_value": 27.282208,
        "relative_strength": -8.630977,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 75.540111,
        "energy": 80.4951,
        "activity_lines": [
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          31.736319,
          31.274175,
          31.07003
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 33.005001,
        "volume": 600,
        "typical_volume": 4811.05,
        "trend": 30.804316,
        "fair_value": 27.343431,
        "relative_strength": -3.849923,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.428003,
        "energy": 86.201091,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.453001,
          32.005001,
          31.455656,
          31.221538
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 33.68,
        "volume": 799,
        "typical_volume": 4682.7,
        "trend": 30.974503,
        "fair_value": 27.4115,
        "relative_strength": -4.555435,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.287895,
        "energy": 94.811597,
        "activity_lines": [
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          32.363728,
          31.691471,
          31.407066
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 32.73,
        "volume": 1813,
        "typical_volume": 4734.5,
        "trend": 31.094819,
        "fair_value": 27.468937,
        "relative_strength": -6.646223,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.078193,
        "energy": 84.357975,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.972334,
          32.517364,
          31.82557,
          31.520324
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 33.275002,
        "volume": 1120,
        "typical_volume": 4768.25,
        "trend": 31.228913,
        "fair_value": 27.529018,
        "relative_strength": -3.570988,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.807227,
        "energy": 84.453108,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.116334,
          32.729365,
          32.00783,
          31.660981
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 33.009998,
        "volume": 4,
        "typical_volume": 4576.2,
        "trend": 31.341496,
        "fair_value": 27.5845,
        "relative_strength": -3.995198,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.415087,
        "energy": 76.743915,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.113667,
          32.851637,
          32.160928,
          31.77589
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 33.169998,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 3425.6,
        "trend": 31.449335,
        "fair_value": 27.642121,
        "relative_strength": -3.983525,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.659505,
        "energy": 64.61994,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.123666,
          32.963182,
          32.318452,
          31.893857
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 34.009998,
        "volume": 308,
        "typical_volume": 3438.0,
        "trend": 31.563068,
        "fair_value": 27.708847,
        "relative_strength": -4.244728,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.68624,
        "energy": 86.791718,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.402665,
          33.199818,
          32.542241,
          32.059062
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}