{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2611de36-8d5b-476e-85d9-a719d584dafc", "symbol": "3296", "name": "Powertech Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.714, "architecture_energy": 22.365, "architecture_maturity": 56.613, "architecture_confidence": 74.716, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.39, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 51.77, "deceleration": 93.74, "rotation_down": 44.81, "downward_expansion": 24.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.633333, 25.173636, 24.488809, 23.876882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.5, "trend_reference": 23.478333, "distance_from_trend": 0.000923, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.096474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017471, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.532443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010526, "excess_performance": -0.451898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000923, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05576, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084863, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090552, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.268852, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99100, "relative_activity": 0.122282, "balance": 1.268852, "dry_up": 0.496255, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128969, "annualized_volatility": 0.614925, "from_high_reference": -0.256329, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.478333, "fair_value_reference": 23.096474, "structural_low": 19.049999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.065539, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.04214, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.109127, "worst_return": -0.108581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.072805, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.045321, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.121757, "worst_return": -0.246729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.011993, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023723, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203426, "worst_return": -0.179439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128329, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047836, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105159, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.255973, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021739, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 16.25, "volume": 1978360, "typical_volume": 2499165.3, "trend": 17.01, "fair_value": 17.638515, "relative_strength": -11.875553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.99239, 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24.067381, 23.666667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.6, "volume": 720753, "typical_volume": 794917.8, "trend": 23.543333, "fair_value": 22.900961, "relative_strength": -18.985114, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.402445, "energy": 60.031937, "activity_lines": [ 27.56, 26.347272, 24.306428, 23.804301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.0, "volume": 460142, "typical_volume": 791345.8, "trend": 23.631667, "fair_value": 22.969872, "relative_strength": -15.826512, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.273349, "energy": 44.053006, "activity_lines": [ 27.19, 26.748182, 24.671667, 24.027312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 698376, "typical_volume": 810048.2, "trend": 23.521666, "fair_value": 23.006731, "relative_strength": -30.404002, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.656209, "energy": 14.356431, "activity_lines": [ 25.273333, 26.092727, 24.520714, 23.90914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.0, "volume": 351078, "typical_volume": 813161.7, "trend": 23.478333, "fair_value": 23.049679, "relative_strength": -27.441298, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.257364, "energy": 21.119618, "activity_lines": [ 24.16, 25.616363, 24.484286, 23.875484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.5, "volume": 99100, "typical_volume": 810418.65, "trend": 23.478333, "fair_value": 23.096474, "relative_strength": -27.532443, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.713719, "energy": 22.365043, "activity_lines": [ 23.633333, 25.173636, 24.488809, 23.876882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }