{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2612ffca-f269-4f2a-9eec-e0b6f41e8b9b", "symbol": "FICO", "name": "Fair Isaac Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.998, "architecture_energy": 24.242, "architecture_maturity": 37.709, "architecture_confidence": 68.444, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.28, "rotation_up": 18.85, "upward_expansion": 18.66, "deceleration": 53.58, "rotation_down": 50.5, "downward_expansion": 59.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 1145.074, 1174.460364, 1162.777143, 1167.815656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1041.4, "trend_reference": 1214.461, "distance_from_trend": -0.1425, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1495.016346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.303419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.098648, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.25133, "excess_performance": -0.376955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1425, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136369, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.303419, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072679, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340986, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007724, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25133, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722016, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2127298, "relative_activity": 1.251113, "balance": 0.722016, "dry_up": 1.09064, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133086, "annualized_volatility": 0.649331, "from_high_reference": -0.478781, "from_low_reference": 0.196998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1214.461, "fair_value_reference": 1495.016346, "structural_low": 870.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.033638, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.005733, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.427174, "worst_return": -0.167479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.14007, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.154645, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.564994, "worst_return": -0.315003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.153215, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.310439, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.442727, "worst_return": -0.397289, 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"2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014357, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005401, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116851, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 846.13, "volume": 632316, "typical_volume": 902683.9, "trend": 748.187, "fair_value": 520.578654, "relative_strength": 20.843695, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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1689716.75, "trend": 1252.608667, "fair_value": 1492.046859, "relative_strength": -19.193899, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.095275, "energy": 24.132172, "activity_lines": [ 1246.162667, 1218.903273, 1173.015571, 1188.686882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1122.97, "volume": 3034267, "typical_volume": 1692830.3, "trend": 1235.265333, "fair_value": 1493.854231, "relative_strength": -26.956514, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.82143, "energy": 11.548707, "activity_lines": [ 1207.219333, 1203.034182, 1171.761, 1180.323097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1041.4, "volume": 2127298, "typical_volume": 1700324.0, "trend": 1214.461, "fair_value": 1495.016346, "relative_strength": -34.098648, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.99795, "energy": 24.242286, "activity_lines": [ 1145.074, 1174.460364, 1162.777143, 1167.815656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }