{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26188693-4eca-4c6e-81c7-794915d5d58b", "symbol": "ZWB", "name": "BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.691, "architecture_energy": 65.118, "architecture_maturity": 89.388, "architecture_confidence": 76.969, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.48, "rotation_up": 53.26, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.42, "rotation_down": 28.25, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.281598, 31.059167, 29.966661, 28.88173 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.280001, "trend_reference": 27.542417, "distance_from_trend": 0.135703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.524501, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.60209, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.783164, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.239485, "excess_performance": 0.119064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135703, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089915, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.60209, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096037, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097832, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023683, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.239485, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.315703, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 654900, "relative_activity": 1.088018, "balance": 2.315703, "dry_up": 1.741386, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026303, "annualized_volatility": 0.139689, "from_high_reference": -0.024385, "from_low_reference": 0.553959 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.542417, "fair_value_reference": 19.524501, "structural_low": 24.030134, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.015477, "positive_rate": 0.702703, "directional_follow_through": 0.702703, "median_excess_return": -0.001851, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.06565, "worst_return": -0.062199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.038175, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.003773, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.146796, "worst_return": -0.061784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.095862, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.018668, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.277034, "worst_return": -0.126687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"up", "direction": 86.894765, "energy": 95.035473, "activity_lines": [ 30.822125, 30.04066, 28.69781, 27.765859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.783367, "volume": 999300, "typical_volume": 572365.0, "trend": 26.897336, "fair_value": 19.210552, "relative_strength": 16.309496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.25415, "energy": 94.653151, "activity_lines": [ 31.223187, 30.481171, 29.10234, 28.096644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.077291, "volume": 1380300, "typical_volume": 593625.0, "trend": 27.112985, "fair_value": 19.313766, "relative_strength": 12.982271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.286862, "energy": 78.499364, "activity_lines": [ 31.249667, 30.714557, 29.411059, 28.366319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.15, "volume": 1158200, "typical_volume": 606495.0, "trend": 27.328139, "fair_value": 19.418664, "relative_strength": 13.28444, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.611659, "energy": 66.941561, "activity_lines": [ 31.263958, 30.897771, 29.698401, 28.626771 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.280001, "volume": 654900, "typical_volume": 601920.0, "trend": 27.542417, "fair_value": 19.524501, "relative_strength": 9.783164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.691203, "energy": 65.11776, "activity_lines": [ 31.281598, 31.059167, 29.966661, 28.88173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }