{ "ticker": { "uuid": "261ede26-80fd-48dd-a691-a65eb303ca78", "symbol": "IOZ", "name": "iShares Core S&P/ASX 200 ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.398, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.531, "architecture_energy": 74.645, "architecture_maturity": 6.268, "architecture_confidence": 70.684, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.37, "rotation_up": 72.03, "upward_expansion": 86.12, "deceleration": 47.88, "rotation_down": 9.68, "downward_expansion": 15.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.028666, 35.682239, 35.373491, 35.275796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.099998, "trend_reference": 35.221019, "distance_from_trend": 0.053348, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.657192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.638601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.072352, "excess_performance": 0.008647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053348, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010487, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041668, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006386, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.196462, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2968058, "relative_activity": 1.660749, "balance": 1.196462, "dry_up": 1.20164, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01876, "annualized_volatility": 0.127541, "from_high_reference": -0.00376, "from_low_reference": 0.117154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.221019, "fair_value_reference": 31.657192, "structural_low": 33.209389, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.001495, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.003153, "regime_survival": 0.685714, "best_return": 0.063047, "worst_return": -0.068071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.000924, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009336, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.070098, "worst_return": -0.116176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042151, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.01859, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.080595, "worst_return": -0.078003, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.89779, "energy": 34.531792, "activity_lines": [ 35.291958, 35.123238, 35.054915, 35.079542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.240002, "volume": 1879541, "typical_volume": 1838220.95, "trend": 35.083968, "fair_value": 31.479117, "relative_strength": 0.804894, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.995669, "energy": 25.025055, "activity_lines": [ 35.277681, 35.166229, 35.071917, 35.09187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.110001, "volume": 1943357, "typical_volume": 1799923.85, "trend": 35.096282, "fair_value": 31.531307, "relative_strength": 0.667245, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.471911, "energy": 12.645296, "activity_lines": [ 35.22038, 35.18007, 35.083434, 35.09355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.959999, "volume": 1799238, "typical_volume": 1749159.25, "trend": 35.138901, "fair_value": 31.590798, "relative_strength": 0.708133, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.164882, "energy": 43.065898, "activity_lines": [ 35.463334, 35.339348, 35.17747, 35.149273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.099998, "volume": 2968058, "typical_volume": 1787180.55, "trend": 35.221019, "fair_value": 31.657192, "relative_strength": 0.638601, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.531184, "energy": 74.644695, "activity_lines": [ 36.028666, 35.682239, 35.373491, 35.275796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }