{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26206f5a-4687-427b-8905-76f6299a3eec", "symbol": "CEBG", "name": "iShares VII PLC - iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.398, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.874, "architecture_energy": 33.731, "architecture_maturity": 35.603, "architecture_confidence": 75.038, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.6, "rotation_up": 47.07, "upward_expansion": 74.98, "deceleration": 57.74, "rotation_down": 20.14, "downward_expansion": 3.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 195.601337, 194.952366, 194.080668, 192.752733 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 196.520004, "trend_reference": 191.273334, "distance_from_trend": 0.02743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 154.288974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.888346, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023115, "excess_performance": -0.041524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02743, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049227, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035237, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018883, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023115, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.899732, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2839, "relative_activity": 0.9593, "balance": 0.899732, "dry_up": 0.725979, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027873, "annualized_volatility": 0.195536, "from_high_reference": -0.024957, "from_low_reference": 0.35531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 191.273334, "fair_value_reference": 154.288974, "structural_low": 169.300003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.012762, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.010522, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.119672, "worst_return": -0.112483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031881, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.023079, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.187172, "worst_return": -0.172844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062528, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.11235, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.167906, "worst_return": -0.116258, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.361854, "energy": 32.890392, "activity_lines": [ 193.417336, 193.033819, 191.216382, 189.070753 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 195.740005, "volume": 634, "typical_volume": 4742.5, "trend": 185.462001, "fair_value": 152.171666, "relative_strength": 10.285176, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.403735, "energy": 31.295976, "activity_lines": [ 194.372004, 193.510184, 191.712477, 189.809205 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 195.5, "volume": 399, "typical_volume": 4453.15, "trend": 186.457334, "fair_value": 152.485897, "relative_strength": 10.976943, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.022974, "energy": 39.866068, "activity_lines": [ 194.968003, 193.958547, 192.144096, 190.456818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 193.399994, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 4249.3, "trend": 187.341334, "fair_value": 152.77782, "relative_strength": 4.674845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.398157, "energy": 41.227705, "activity_lines": [ 194.744, 193.993091, 192.359429, 190.904732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 192.460007, "volume": 1214, "typical_volume": 4051.3, "trend": 188.159334, "fair_value": 153.073077, "relative_strength": 6.606028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.984195, "energy": 27.57222, "activity_lines": [ 194.108002, 193.853093, 192.491525, 191.234969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 192.0, "volume": 895, "typical_volume": 3696.95, "trend": 188.944667, "fair_value": 153.369615, "relative_strength": 6.834762, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.641115, "energy": 17.208651, "activity_lines": [ 193.118668, 193.518911, 192.596382, 191.482753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 194.880005, "volume": 2067, "typical_volume": 3369.15, "trend": 189.744667, "fair_value": 153.636923, "relative_strength": 6.763984, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.329747, "energy": 17.402544, "activity_lines": [ 193.472002, 193.797457, 192.999906, 191.865678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 197.580002, "volume": 2793, "typical_volume": 3193.25, "trend": 190.606001, "fair_value": 153.965641, "relative_strength": 5.558165, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.729044, "energy": 27.957712, "activity_lines": [ 194.782669, 194.506548, 193.631621, 192.371184 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 196.520004, "volume": 2839, "typical_volume": 2959.45, "trend": 191.273334, "fair_value": 154.288974, "relative_strength": 1.888346, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.874168, "energy": 33.730706, "activity_lines": [ 195.601337, 194.952366, 194.080668, 192.752733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }