{ "ticker": { "uuid": "262977de-b51f-4648-b709-bb211313c2b8", "symbol": "DOW1", "name": "Dow Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.506, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -66.604, "architecture_energy": 86.349, "architecture_maturity": 15.031, "architecture_confidence": 73.219, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.19, "rotation_up": 17.06, "upward_expansion": 27.87, "deceleration": 43.04, "rotation_down": 72.9, "downward_expansion": 62.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 561.399984, 574.443617, 599.667506, 609.810783 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 505.0, "trend_reference": 603.265924, "distance_from_trend": -0.16289, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 741.662304, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.319097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.647152, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073928, "excess_performance": -0.019261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16289, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10623, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.319097, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056472, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192903, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073928, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.354839, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 228, "relative_activity": 0.893767, "balance": 0.354839, "dry_up": 0.223442, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032035, "annualized_volatility": 0.454613, "from_high_reference": -0.312998, "from_low_reference": 0.319974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 603.265924, "fair_value_reference": 741.662304, "structural_low": 505.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033249, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018339, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.1383, "worst_return": -0.127017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04864, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.028958, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11215, "worst_return": -0.111568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.060673, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.382345, "worst_return": -0.370192, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.154548, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.145051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.030221, "worst_return": -0.552827, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042816, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038822, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005257, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036329, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000643, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086541, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.493571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11215, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038626, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155304, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.076779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 871.062744, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 257.6, "trend": 939.743681, "fair_value": 1106.061552, "relative_strength": -11.084355, "stage": 4, "regime": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 589.599976, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 274.8, "trend": 594.834285, "fair_value": 745.813109, "relative_strength": 11.695262, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.266848, "energy": 59.751348, "activity_lines": [ 589.599976, 592.47299, 616.852408, 616.313371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 589.599976, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 261.05, "trend": 600.555817, "fair_value": 744.00886, "relative_strength": 10.36133, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.14325, "energy": 68.437115, "activity_lines": [ 589.599976, 590.421795, 612.11943, 615.975674 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 505.0, "volume": 228, "typical_volume": 255.1, "trend": 603.265924, "fair_value": 741.662304, "relative_strength": -5.647152, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -66.603905, "energy": 86.348965, "activity_lines": [ 561.399984, 574.443617, 599.667506, 609.810783 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }