{ "ticker": { "uuid": "262c9900-58f8-4ceb-afad-47e61e23efc3", "symbol": "QNTM", "name": "Quantum BioPharma Ltd.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.979, "architecture_energy": 39.827, "architecture_maturity": 23.582, "architecture_confidence": 89.561, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.07, "rotation_up": 14.5, "upward_expansion": 5.07, "deceleration": 46.6, "rotation_down": 61.24, "downward_expansion": 80.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.171333, 3.328, 4.101786, 4.136527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.45, "trend_reference": 4.2845, "distance_from_trend": -0.194772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.020879, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.843331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.4899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.178571, "excess_performance": -0.366025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268586, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.843331, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017216, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.624899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.509368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 612432, "relative_activity": 0.344102, "balance": 0.509368, "dry_up": 0.257918, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.435411, "annualized_volatility": 1.781523, "from_high_reference": -0.891897, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.2845, "fair_value_reference": 22.020879, "structural_low": 2.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.077576, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.07882, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 1.637427, "worst_return": -0.483688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.133486, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.100891, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.504065, "worst_return": -0.69702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.223211, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.01062, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 6.714724, "worst_return": -0.828274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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48.013128, "activity_lines": [ 3.561333, 4.356909, 4.54731, 4.522742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.24, "volume": 328424, "typical_volume": 1970337.3, "trend": 4.714833, "fair_value": 23.540238, "relative_strength": -69.199506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.279872, "energy": 48.994462, "activity_lines": [ 3.424667, 4.031455, 4.443381, 4.415441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.99, "volume": 624491, "typical_volume": 1991532.4, "trend": 4.537833, "fair_value": 23.105238, "relative_strength": -69.55947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.197105, "energy": 43.430252, "activity_lines": [ 3.244, 3.690364, 4.317119, 4.304161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.89, "volume": 270820, "typical_volume": 1771438.65, "trend": 4.4005, "fair_value": 22.565431, "relative_strength": -69.136376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.253612, "energy": 50.133929, "activity_lines": [ 3.084, 3.400545, 4.183762, 4.197849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.45, "volume": 612432, "typical_volume": 1779798.1, "trend": 4.2845, "fair_value": 22.020879, "relative_strength": -62.4899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.979022, "energy": 39.826556, "activity_lines": [ 3.171333, 3.328, 4.101786, 4.136527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }