{ "ticker": { "uuid": "262ef6e4-77fa-4124-ab7f-a581051aa9d8", "symbol": "IVL", "name": "Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.315, "architecture_energy": 12.345, "architecture_maturity": 31.36, "architecture_confidence": 43.046, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.38, "rotation_up": 38.72, "upward_expansion": 63.65, "deceleration": 64.25, "rotation_down": 19.94, "downward_expansion": 11.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.013333, 22.952727, 23.219995, 23.082778 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 22.1, "trend_reference": 22.56547, "distance_from_trend": -0.020628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.455267, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.211331, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052174, "excess_performance": -0.140151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116029, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03005, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050238, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098984, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.669857, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127395600, "relative_activity": 1.092347, "balance": 1.669857, "dry_up": 1.398926, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067345, "annualized_volatility": 0.475731, "from_high_reference": -0.152038, "from_low_reference": 0.535021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.56547, "fair_value_reference": 21.455267, "structural_low": 17.256917, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010307, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.027587, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.111176, "worst_return": -0.047826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.052, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046913, "worst_return": -0.169491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.038268, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013062, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.038165, "worst_return": -0.099273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -1.035082, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.16989, "energy": 19.359782, "activity_lines": [ 23.193333, 23.024961, 23.313699, 22.917017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 187547200, "typical_volume": 125360970.0, "trend": 22.173571, "fair_value": 21.558071, "relative_strength": 0.129114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.103143, "energy": 36.102917, "activity_lines": [ 23.866666, 23.320428, 23.476448, 23.105655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.1, "volume": 129650100, "typical_volume": 123740135.0, "trend": 22.381025, "fair_value": 21.505218, "relative_strength": -9.278063, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.979404, "energy": 17.827061, "activity_lines": [ 23.473333, 23.114545, 23.354588, 23.100908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.1, "volume": 127395600, "typical_volume": 116625620.0, "trend": 22.56547, "fair_value": 21.455267, "relative_strength": -8.211331, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.315421, "energy": 12.345306, "activity_lines": [ 23.013333, 22.952727, 23.219995, 23.082778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }