{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26375307-642b-449b-942f-8743b400867d", "symbol": "VOC", "name": "VOC Energy Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.761, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.069, "architecture_energy": 22.904, "architecture_maturity": 59.27, "architecture_confidence": 60.733, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.94, "rotation_up": 41.79, "upward_expansion": 22.61, "deceleration": 41.09, "rotation_down": 19.81, "downward_expansion": 54.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.99601, 2.889285, 2.942446, 3.018799 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.05, "trend_reference": 3.057195, "distance_from_trend": -0.002353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.758577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188523, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.786542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100524, "excess_performance": -0.025101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017226, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029157, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046838, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.79806, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 391831, "relative_activity": 0.755388, "balance": 0.79806, "dry_up": 1.633761, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078824, "annualized_volatility": 0.409718, "from_high_reference": -0.183205, "from_low_reference": 0.29118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.057195, "fair_value_reference": 3.758577, "structural_low": 2.399154, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.027889, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.041881, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.192029, "worst_return": -0.156499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01041, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.117813, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.177452, "worst_return": -0.211704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003692, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.046941, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.355485, "worst_return": -0.24475, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 521132.8, "trend": 3.033748, "fair_value": 3.797628, "relative_strength": -0.509675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.880242, "energy": 21.640611, "activity_lines": [ 2.866213, 2.823861, 2.954067, 3.022011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.98, "volume": 1873220, "typical_volume": 545605.8, "trend": 3.046033, "fair_value": 3.778309, "relative_strength": -4.750716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.627953, "energy": 23.035114, "activity_lines": [ 2.935158, 2.848846, 2.943985, 3.018543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.05, "volume": 391831, "typical_volume": 518715.1, "trend": 3.057195, "fair_value": 3.758577, "relative_strength": -5.786542, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.068914, "energy": 22.903782, "activity_lines": [ 2.99601, 2.889285, 2.942446, 3.018799 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }