{ "ticker": { "uuid": "263996e2-f41b-4b29-a78e-10b1eba6032d", "symbol": "5RC", "name": "ES Group (Holdings) Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.393, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.8, "architecture_energy": 18.529, "architecture_maturity": 25.191, "architecture_confidence": 78.412, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.84, "rotation_up": 26.81, "upward_expansion": 51.56, "deceleration": 86.96, "rotation_down": 23.25, "downward_expansion": 17.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0594, 0.059709, 0.058352, 0.056822 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.059, "trend_reference": 0.055467, "distance_from_trend": 0.063702, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.047244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248847, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.839651, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.18, "excess_performance": 0.025165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063702, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06258, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151028, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.18, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.231275, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.231275, "dry_up": 0.085262, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104302, "annualized_volatility": 0.510721, "from_high_reference": -0.169014, "from_low_reference": 0.735294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.055467, "fair_value_reference": 0.047244, "structural_low": 0.038, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.038188, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.434783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.11826, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.107744, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.535714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.251337, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.372995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.056604, "worst_return": -0.434783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020583, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.202727, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.456522, "worst_return": -0.235294, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135593, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.461538, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.870968, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.255319, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.031, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 58125.0, "trend": 0.043833, "fair_value": 0.056527, "relative_strength": -35.097229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.994117, "energy": 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0.046462, "relative_strength": -6.742754, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.628075, "energy": 31.095833, "activity_lines": [ 0.060133, 0.0598, 0.056895, 0.055531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.06, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 110590.0, "trend": 0.0543, "fair_value": 0.046673, "relative_strength": -7.118678, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.578721, "energy": 27.741493, "activity_lines": [ 0.06, 0.06, 0.057381, 0.05594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.06, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 107215.0, "trend": 0.054867, "fair_value": 0.046885, "relative_strength": -8.632402, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.40413, "energy": 25.727146, "activity_lines": [ 0.06, 0.060018, 0.057795, 0.056308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.059, "volume": 37200, "typical_volume": 109075.0, "trend": 0.055167, "fair_value": 0.047064, "relative_strength": -10.885497, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.236351, "energy": 20.656605, "activity_lines": [ 0.059667, 0.059873, 0.058086, 0.056574 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.059, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 109075.0, "trend": 0.055467, "fair_value": 0.047244, "relative_strength": -11.839651, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.799558, "energy": 18.529455, "activity_lines": [ 0.0594, 0.059709, 0.058352, 0.056822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }