{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2639bcaa-240f-4baa-b887-36ae7ea7ad4b", "symbol": "L1UL34", "name": "lululemon athletica inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.361, "architecture_energy": 45.022, "architecture_maturity": 97.995, "architecture_confidence": 59.335, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.62, "rotation_up": 27.62, "upward_expansion": 18.93, "deceleration": 66.55, "rotation_down": 40.56, "downward_expansion": 66.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 152.68, 151.831818, 156.602048, 168.706172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 162.880005, "trend_reference": 188.108334, "distance_from_trend": -0.134116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 379.039872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.570283, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.651433, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.278334, "excess_performance": -0.221286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159767, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.570283, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030962, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276514, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215248, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278334, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.853709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2035, "relative_activity": 1.008824, "balance": 0.853709, "dry_up": 0.705681, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067053, "annualized_volatility": 0.457038, "from_high_reference": -0.474581, "from_low_reference": 0.169275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 188.108334, "fair_value_reference": 379.039872, "structural_low": 139.300003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028859, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.261808, "worst_return": -0.290187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.066314, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.171282, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.394457, "worst_return": -0.315396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.025505, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.018391, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.234491, "worst_return": -0.411765, 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177.465678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 140.139999, "volume": 1716, "typical_volume": 2216.5, "trend": 196.278, "fair_value": 382.930833, "relative_strength": -40.182839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.453843, "energy": 66.987496, "activity_lines": [ 148.213998, 150.095636, 159.139714, 173.523291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.449997, "volume": 464, "typical_volume": 2186.4, "trend": 191.717334, "fair_value": 381.002564, "relative_strength": -36.136833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.98462, "energy": 58.180669, "activity_lines": [ 148.359997, 149.76509, 157.138381, 170.566645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 162.880005, "volume": 2035, "typical_volume": 2017.2, "trend": 188.108334, "fair_value": 379.039872, "relative_strength": -27.651433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.361305, "energy": 45.021529, "activity_lines": [ 152.68, 151.831818, 156.602048, 168.706172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }