{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "263e1d88-a059-4941-8d28-d800a1aeeb61",
    "symbol": "HCA",
    "name": "Hamilton Canadian Bank Mean Reversion Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 66.82,
    "architecture_energy": 67.34,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.626,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 11.69,
        "rotation_up": 56.23,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 68.66,
        "rotation_down": 29.63,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        44.462684,
        44.166279,
        42.324143,
        40.480604
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 44.369999,
    "trend_reference": 38.161718,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.162683,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 25.372515,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.748743,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 13.879085,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.311521,
    "excess_performance": 0.191099,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.162683,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.112496,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.748743,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.121939,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.138791,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029313,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.311521,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.978852,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3800,
      "relative_activity": 0.363289,
      "balance": 2.978852,
      "dry_up": 1.622849,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022371,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.153473,
      "from_high_reference": -0.026423,
      "from_low_reference": 0.687754
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 38.161718,
      "fair_value_reference": 25.372515,
      "structural_low": 32.740349,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 33,
        "median_return": 0.015113,
        "positive_rate": 0.606061,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.606061,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001328,
        "regime_survival": 0.818182,
        "best_return": 0.10256,
        "worst_return": -0.081019,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.082467,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016252,
        "regime_survival": 0.727273,
        "best_return": 0.153673,
        "worst_return": -0.083484,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.052124,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005059,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.121883,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.103565,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011584,
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        "best_return": 0.487,
        "worst_return": -0.140832,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      {
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "end": "2024-08-02",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "trend": 32.84435,
        "fair_value": 23.016199,
        "relative_strength": 10.924861,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 82.598312,
        "energy": 92.631515,
        "activity_lines": [
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          34.596811,
          33.914089
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 37.749855,
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        "typical_volume": 9340.0,
        "trend": 33.103659,
        "fair_value": 23.14683,
        "relative_strength": 11.631351,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 80.230457,
        "energy": 92.439929,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 8900,
        "typical_volume": 9470.0,
        "trend": 33.379336,
        "fair_value": 23.278333,
        "relative_strength": 10.947779,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 75.843372,
        "energy": 90.865975,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 26600,
        "typical_volume": 10655.0,
        "trend": 33.662293,
        "fair_value": 23.411101,
        "relative_strength": 11.871347,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 74.663121,
        "energy": 89.572332,
        "activity_lines": [
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          35.62302,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 3000,
        "typical_volume": 10630.0,
        "trend": 33.989652,
        "fair_value": 23.557282,
        "relative_strength": 14.497575,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 91.252666,
        "energy": 92.658729,
        "activity_lines": [
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          36.105829,
          35.239745
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 14600,
        "typical_volume": 11045.0,
        "trend": 34.302799,
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        "relative_strength": 12.139069,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 23.852037,
        "relative_strength": 15.747657,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 87.407662,
        "energy": 91.597716,
        "activity_lines": [
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          37.014397,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 41.961655,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 8820.0,
        "trend": 35.036981,
        "fair_value": 24.009359,
        "relative_strength": 17.291722,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.315121,
        "energy": 95.526757,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 8165.0,
        "trend": 35.465799,
        "fair_value": 24.180739,
        "relative_strength": 20.712406,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 43.695934,
        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 35.873229,
        "fair_value": 24.348749,
        "relative_strength": 20.585481,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.159509,
        "energy": 96.407668,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.596948,
          41.148478,
          38.953275,
          37.548475
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 43.688599,
        "volume": 300,
        "typical_volume": 7410.0,
        "trend": 36.253523,
        "fair_value": 24.517543,
        "relative_strength": 19.00061,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.084301,
        "energy": 93.316667,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.210617,
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          39.565328,
          38.052693
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 44.796028,
        "volume": 17600,
        "typical_volume": 8075.0,
        "trend": 36.652039,
        "fair_value": 24.69122,
        "relative_strength": 21.108569,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.90624,
        "energy": 96.068509,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.916013,
          42.570748,
          40.235909,
          38.603822
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 45.155193,
        "volume": 8800,
        "typical_volume": 8255.0,
        "trend": 37.054984,
        "fair_value": 24.864595,
        "relative_strength": 21.480844,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.321944,
        "energy": 95.131597,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.459723,
          43.262419,
          40.89244,
          39.152413
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 43.967949,
        "volume": 14400,
        "typical_volume": 8760.0,
        "trend": 37.417042,
        "fair_value": 25.030379,
        "relative_strength": 17.312001,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.551524,
        "energy": 77.070967,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.394782,
          43.605756,
          41.3876,
          39.598411
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 44.52,
        "volume": 40900,
        "typical_volume": 10600.0,
        "trend": 37.798951,
        "fair_value": 25.201371,
        "relative_strength": 18.606964,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.39912,
        "energy": 68.850477,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.481202,
          43.94202,
          41.889006,
          40.056666
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 44.369999,
        "volume": 3800,
        "typical_volume": 10460.0,
        "trend": 38.161718,
        "fair_value": 25.372515,
        "relative_strength": 13.879085,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.819808,
        "energy": 67.340428,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.462684,
          44.166279,
          42.324143,
          40.480604
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}