{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2643c79b-6617-4ee3-80f1-0a67130e080b", "symbol": "TLGO", "name": "Talgo, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.316, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.892, "architecture_energy": 16.666, "architecture_maturity": 20.88, "architecture_confidence": 58.63, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.99, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 16.94, "deceleration": 45.63, "rotation_down": 24.27, "downward_expansion": 53.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.722667, 2.706455, 2.719643, 2.741333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.725, "trend_reference": 2.784667, "distance_from_trend": -0.021427, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.449776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210094, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.085777, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047203, "excess_performance": -0.171634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021427, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210094, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005102, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018367, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047203, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.41827, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196276, "relative_activity": 0.477106, "balance": 1.41827, "dry_up": 0.801412, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035992, "annualized_volatility": 0.129158, "from_high_reference": -0.15109, "from_low_reference": 0.081349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.784667, "fair_value_reference": 3.449776, "structural_low": 2.625, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006061, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004315, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.14382, "worst_return": -0.115914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.026443, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.174524, "worst_return": -0.215006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.128525, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.157966, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.408149, "worst_return": -0.174323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.243119, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.238039, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.395348, "worst_return": -0.417488, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018657, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.026217, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079284, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.045763, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011945, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058621, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036036, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.67, "volume": 196612, "typical_volume": 473813.6, "trend": 3.304616, "fair_value": 3.700662, "relative_strength": 11.76471, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.390809, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.743323, "energy": 29.901901, "activity_lines": [ 2.691667, 2.694091, 2.723429, 2.756237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.725, "volume": 519987, "typical_volume": 416778.55, "trend": 2.805, "fair_value": 3.463141, "relative_strength": -15.941644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.95332, "energy": 18.095324, "activity_lines": [ 2.708, 2.696273, 2.72169, 2.750796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.73, "volume": 368479, "typical_volume": 416656.8, "trend": 2.796667, "fair_value": 3.45609, "relative_strength": -15.891051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.715253, "energy": 15.970985, "activity_lines": [ 2.719333, 2.701364, 2.720833, 2.745957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.725, "volume": 196276, "typical_volume": 411388.5, "trend": 2.784667, "fair_value": 3.449776, "relative_strength": -17.085777, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.892163, "energy": 16.666257, "activity_lines": [ 2.722667, 2.706455, 2.719643, 2.741333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }