{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26446540-6f6e-42bc-9a9e-0cb82c2df896", "symbol": "KM1", "name": "KALIMETALS FPO [KM1]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.306, "architecture_energy": 69.215, "architecture_maturity": 62.53, "architecture_confidence": 94.86, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 22.56, "upward_expansion": 12.82, "deceleration": 47.73, "rotation_down": 66.06, "downward_expansion": 88.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.075867, 0.081782, 0.1048, 0.120049 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.075, "trend_reference": 0.142317, "distance_from_trend": -0.473006, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.191244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.607832, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.675014, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.605263, "excess_performance": -0.668969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.473006, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180911, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.607832, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.480382, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.54675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.672301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.605263, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.052959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79108, "relative_activity": 0.142035, "balance": 0.052959, "dry_up": 0.368183, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.191795, "annualized_volatility": 0.825441, "from_high_reference": -0.673913, "from_low_reference": 0.071429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.142317, "fair_value_reference": 0.191244, "structural_low": 0.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.060952, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061523, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.42, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.450876, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.42, "worst_return": -0.42, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.037061, "energy": 82.795779, "activity_lines": [ 0.0804, 0.091836, 0.115171, 0.129604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.071, "volume": 198347, "typical_volume": 577659.75, "trend": 0.145317, "fair_value": 0.192112, "relative_strength": -56.249332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.628973, "energy": 83.726387, "activity_lines": [ 0.077333, 0.085727, 0.10956, 0.124586 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.075, "volume": 79108, "typical_volume": 556960.05, "trend": 0.142317, "fair_value": 0.191244, "relative_strength": -54.675014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.306184, "energy": 69.214634, "activity_lines": [ 0.075867, 0.081782, 0.1048, 0.120049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }