{ "ticker": { "uuid": "264f83ce-2b7d-4def-95fd-03917f46edfc", "symbol": "ART", "name": "Arteche Lantegi Elkartea, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.189, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.375, "architecture_energy": 48.875, "architecture_maturity": 42.675, "architecture_confidence": 73.821, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.67, "rotation_up": 14.21, "upward_expansion": 27.81, "deceleration": 53.27, "rotation_down": 67.84, "downward_expansion": 46.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.7, 31.287273, 33.586835, 32.435297 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.799999, "trend_reference": 30.186734, "distance_from_trend": -0.045939, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.398687, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.322826, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.582304, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.222526, "excess_performance": 0.098095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045939, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139743, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.322826, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.164323, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.11555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.222526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.412587, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88060, "relative_activity": 0.78117, "balance": 0.412587, "dry_up": 1.517916, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12313, "annualized_volatility": 0.660376, "from_high_reference": -0.373913, "from_low_reference": 1.530096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.186734, "fair_value_reference": 12.398687, "structural_low": 21.776109, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025806, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.021066, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.186047, "worst_return": -0.091988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.113821, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.00037, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.265689, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.115908, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.842777, "worst_return": 0.004871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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32.431281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.9, "volume": 197056, "typical_volume": 100726.65, "trend": 29.44074, "fair_value": 11.902566, "relative_strength": 11.463554, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.972809, "energy": 18.513173, "activity_lines": [ 32.28, 34.416364, 34.613137, 32.476253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.6, "volume": 160463, "typical_volume": 104772.55, "trend": 29.728271, "fair_value": 12.075356, "relative_strength": 10.76269, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.965719, "energy": 20.616147, "activity_lines": [ 31.44, 33.347273, 34.40381, 32.551044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.1, "volume": 238870, "typical_volume": 112175.1, "trend": 29.965802, "fair_value": 12.237923, "relative_strength": 3.33458, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.39372, "energy": 23.522485, "activity_lines": [ 30.466667, 32.24, 34.01809, 32.51051 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.799999, "volume": 88060, "typical_volume": 112728.4, "trend": 30.186734, "fair_value": 12.398687, "relative_strength": -0.582304, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.375068, "energy": 48.875404, "activity_lines": [ 29.7, 31.287273, 33.586835, 32.435297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }