{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26520d67-abae-4ca7-95ac-6f106b16ed6b", "symbol": "002012", "name": "Zhejiang Kan Specialities Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.291, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.271, "architecture_energy": 57.514, "architecture_maturity": 3.71, "architecture_confidence": 68.173, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.07, "rotation_up": 10.77, "upward_expansion": 10.63, "deceleration": 41.16, "rotation_down": 70.5, "downward_expansion": 86.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.934667, 6.136, 6.554855, 6.667146 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.58, "trend_reference": 6.723751, "distance_from_trend": -0.02138, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.274375, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247541, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.106724, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.02424, "excess_performance": 0.01684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02138, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014587, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247541, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039025, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02424, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.072814, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109557771, "relative_activity": 1.304727, "balance": 2.072814, "dry_up": 1.075369, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116621, "annualized_volatility": 0.480992, "from_high_reference": -0.318135, "from_low_reference": 0.337398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.723751, "fair_value_reference": 5.274375, "structural_low": 4.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.057441, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.029579, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.135135, "worst_return": -0.189435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.025074, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.044581, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.188476, "worst_return": -0.234618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.109447, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.090871, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.206348, "worst_return": -0.186594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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6.074, 6.572991, 6.801476, 6.822768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.73, "volume": 76301310, "typical_volume": 79847876.45, "trend": 6.748371, "fair_value": 5.277709, "relative_strength": -10.182136, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.213947, "energy": 66.805586, "activity_lines": [ 5.868, 6.359107, 6.692114, 6.756002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.51, "volume": 116935410, "typical_volume": 81380711.3, "trend": 6.718893, "fair_value": 5.272771, "relative_strength": -12.138834, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.113003, "energy": 78.088242, "activity_lines": [ 5.684, 6.129455, 6.568669, 6.676107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.58, "volume": 109557771, "typical_volume": 83969882.35, "trend": 6.723751, "fair_value": 5.274375, "relative_strength": -0.106724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.270905, "energy": 57.51394, "activity_lines": [ 5.934667, 6.136, 6.554855, 6.667146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }