{ "ticker": { "uuid": "265570a2-799a-4ff0-a4e6-60324e0c8569", "symbol": "QHE", "name": "Quantum Helium Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.373, "architecture_energy": 46.736, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.939, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.73, "rotation_up": 16.87, "upward_expansion": 7.46, "deceleration": 43.03, "rotation_down": 54.89, "downward_expansion": 78.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.026533, 0.027677, 0.028727, 0.030327 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.023, "trend_reference": 0.032442, "distance_from_trend": -0.291035, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.031316, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.265544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.438961, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.394737, "excess_performance": -0.445972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.291035, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036386, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.265544, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32439, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22705, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.394737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.392962, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29528378, "relative_activity": 1.318704, "balance": 0.392962, "dry_up": 0.797565, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.26087, "annualized_volatility": 0.884201, "from_high_reference": -0.557692, "from_low_reference": 0.15 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.032442, "fair_value_reference": 0.031316, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038672, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.682353, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.030769, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.062182, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.174397, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.189385, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.285714, "worst_return": -0.603448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.41021, "energy": 18.284045, "activity_lines": [ 0.0298, 0.02905, 0.030592, 0.032045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.028, "volume": 12640112, "typical_volume": 21565919.8, "trend": 0.033692, "fair_value": 0.031389, "relative_strength": -15.830762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.57951, "energy": 19.34454, "activity_lines": [ 0.029483, 0.028855, 0.030183, 0.031656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.029, "volume": 12561877, "typical_volume": 21374776.15, "trend": 0.033358, "fair_value": 0.031377, "relative_strength": -14.021843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.098795, "energy": 17.393977, "activity_lines": [ 0.029167, 0.028895, 0.029899, 0.031353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0275, "volume": 16705841, "typical_volume": 21365372.6, "trend": 0.033042, "fair_value": 0.031341, "relative_strength": -19.455581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.486723, "energy": 26.141494, "activity_lines": [ 0.02855, 0.0287, 0.029505, 0.030975 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.023, "volume": 29528378, "typical_volume": 22391959.8, "trend": 0.032442, "fair_value": 0.031316, "relative_strength": -32.438961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.372829, "energy": 46.735886, "activity_lines": [ 0.026533, 0.027677, 0.028727, 0.030327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }