{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2656f5d4-64cf-4eb7-b629-ce18674f484f", "symbol": "3042", "name": "China Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited - Select OFC Bitcoin ETF Fund", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.222, "architecture_energy": 34.813, "architecture_maturity": 31.548, "architecture_confidence": 64.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.52, "rotation_up": 26.18, "upward_expansion": 16.87, "deceleration": 66.35, "rotation_down": 34.07, "downward_expansion": 62.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.815333, 7.743364, 8.133762, 8.321097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.83, "trend_reference": 8.655, "distance_from_trend": -0.095321, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.393445, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.246641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.028206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01261, "excess_performance": 0.020971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.246641, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240282, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036259, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.953768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1603133, "relative_activity": 0.613216, "balance": 0.953768, "dry_up": 0.708241, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063169, "annualized_volatility": 0.327743, "from_high_reference": -0.492876, "from_low_reference": 0.104372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.655, "fair_value_reference": 10.393445, "structural_low": 7.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169355, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.127027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014351, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.855278, "energy": 48.070478, "activity_lines": [ 7.744333, 7.779727, 8.261857, 8.451688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.775, "volume": 2321900, "typical_volume": 2710571.9, "trend": 8.763333, "fair_value": 10.415169, "relative_strength": -26.172115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.864823, "energy": 37.951602, "activity_lines": [ 7.784333, 7.741545, 8.192833, 8.381312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.83, "volume": 1603133, "typical_volume": 2614302.75, "trend": 8.655, "fair_value": 10.393445, "relative_strength": -24.028206, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.221974, "energy": 34.812957, "activity_lines": [ 7.815333, 7.743364, 8.133762, 8.321097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }