{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2657d0c8-6600-415f-abf4-7b530ccf6275", "symbol": "300514", "name": "Shenzhen Friendcom Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.49, "architecture_energy": 62.277, "architecture_maturity": 86.563, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 27.07, "upward_expansion": 11.91, "deceleration": 60.19, "rotation_down": 54.96, "downward_expansion": 85.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.056086, 9.188222, 10.090737, 10.951758 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.44, "trend_reference": 12.064809, "distance_from_trend": -0.217559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.448016, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.298038, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.743234, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.340733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.298038, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222165, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297432, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.286024, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14765202, "relative_activity": 1.03064, "balance": 0.286024, "dry_up": 1.162396, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091987, "annualized_volatility": 0.348141, "from_high_reference": -0.415118, "from_low_reference": 0.165432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.064809, "fair_value_reference": 13.448016, "structural_low": 8.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.020387, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020117, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.19901, "worst_return": -0.146457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.164004, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.053987, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.20776, "worst_return": -0.302654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.15113, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.190592, "worst_return": 0.052062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10.345625, 11.3749, 12.075417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.121284, "volume": 13896442, "typical_volume": 16860437.05, "trend": 12.636475, "fair_value": 13.578221, "relative_strength": -38.458196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.285356, "energy": 89.721358, "activity_lines": [ 9.375862, 10.007259, 11.074342, 11.839192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.96, "volume": 13433500, "typical_volume": 16796037.05, "trend": 12.495475, "fair_value": 13.546205, "relative_strength": -32.850721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.052321, "energy": 83.296339, "activity_lines": [ 9.185578, 9.700454, 10.784179, 11.602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.4, "volume": 21867662, "typical_volume": 16320080.15, "trend": 12.332809, "fair_value": 13.505632, "relative_strength": -36.555931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.281997, "energy": 81.171028, "activity_lines": [ 8.88929, 9.359831, 10.468349, 11.337776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.1, "volume": 16544700, "typical_volume": 15153445.15, "trend": 12.190475, "fair_value": 13.470504, "relative_strength": -29.467462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.15938, "energy": 65.744796, "activity_lines": [ 8.914652, 9.215208, 10.249995, 11.129208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.44, "volume": 14765202, "typical_volume": 14326240.25, "trend": 12.064809, "fair_value": 13.448016, "relative_strength": -29.743234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.489683, "energy": 62.276685, "activity_lines": [ 9.056086, 9.188222, 10.090737, 10.951758 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }