{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26652609-6238-4e1d-b428-b427aa38580f", "symbol": "RRX", "name": "Regal Beloit Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.322, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.213, "architecture_energy": 21.885, "architecture_maturity": 21.786, "architecture_confidence": 80.357, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.94, "rotation_up": 15.66, "upward_expansion": 18.53, "deceleration": 68.45, "rotation_down": 53.35, "downward_expansion": 32.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 198.510667, 206.244711, 207.390133, 205.086435 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 178.0, "trend_reference": 200.244352, "distance_from_trend": -0.111086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 155.278009, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.146331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.484908, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.158014, "excess_performance": -0.283639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124934, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.146331, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280412, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158014, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.57288, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10272848, "relative_activity": 1.890487, "balance": 0.57288, "dry_up": 1.109319, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134124, "annualized_volatility": 0.426815, "from_high_reference": -0.281679, "from_low_reference": 0.397136 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 200.244352, "fair_value_reference": 155.278009, "structural_low": 172.617368, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018996, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001591, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.230581, "worst_return": -0.184779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.129258, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.068138, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.517441, "worst_return": -0.22408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067144, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.004372, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.386012, "worst_return": -0.126729, "sufficient": true 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"trend": 192.891092, "fair_value": 154.046227, "relative_strength": 12.951261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.639127, "energy": 41.937959, "activity_lines": [ 218.09838, 213.876213, 208.828694, 203.928335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 206.81, "volume": 4095518, "typical_volume": 5413100.15, "trend": 195.138719, "fair_value": 154.404458, "relative_strength": 10.113457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.997522, "energy": 26.080692, "activity_lines": [ 214.286826, 213.147323, 209.088649, 204.826329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 212.74, "volume": 3648548, "typical_volume": 5285832.75, "trend": 197.409774, "fair_value": 154.80801, "relative_strength": 13.592299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.24129, "energy": 18.132484, "activity_lines": [ 212.797838, 213.628168, 209.978879, 205.961895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 205.23, "volume": 6095107, "typical_volume": 5217649.35, "trend": 199.38986, "fair_value": 155.128006, "relative_strength": 8.117238, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.436227, "energy": 12.996125, "activity_lines": [ 209.719333, 212.455027, 210.027262, 206.466426 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 178.0, "volume": 10272848, "typical_volume": 5433969.8, "trend": 200.244352, "fair_value": 155.278009, "relative_strength": -9.484908, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.212917, "energy": 21.885124, "activity_lines": [ 198.510667, 206.244711, 207.390133, 205.086435 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }