{ "ticker": { "uuid": "266fc72f-d3f7-4ea1-80ea-e1d7a4526cd8", "symbol": "IL&FSTRANS", "name": "IL&FS Transportation Networks Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.293, "architecture_energy": 61.454, "architecture_maturity": 15.982, "architecture_confidence": 89.209, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.63, "rotation_up": 11.02, "upward_expansion": 12.97, "deceleration": 37.99, "rotation_down": 72.12, "downward_expansion": 90.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.076, 2.158182, 2.244333, 2.274151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.06, "trend_reference": 2.353667, "distance_from_trend": -0.12477, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.055385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.492033, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.835884, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228464, "excess_performance": -0.184755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12477, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082153, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.492033, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117061, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208359, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11263, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.348476, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 156384, "relative_activity": 1.00891, "balance": 0.348476, "dry_up": 0.792772, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115011, "annualized_volatility": 0.557337, "from_high_reference": -0.404624, "from_low_reference": 0.177143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.353667, "fair_value_reference": 4.055385, "structural_low": 1.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.006116, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -2.3e-05, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.343529, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.084183, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.089368, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.728814, "worst_return": -0.310195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.081156, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.171712, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.813559, "worst_return": -0.301518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.18, "volume": 101601, "typical_volume": 177983.45, "trend": 2.458667, "fair_value": 4.076218, "relative_strength": -17.887116, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.213072, "energy": 23.577653, "activity_lines": [ 2.280667, 2.319818, 2.325238, 2.363419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.14, "volume": 107407, "typical_volume": 168637.65, "trend": 2.435, "fair_value": 4.071346, "relative_strength": -18.971199, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.1042, "energy": 47.032902, "activity_lines": [ 2.215333, 2.281091, 2.309143, 2.34286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.02, "volume": 102170, "typical_volume": 163951.85, "trend": 2.41, "fair_value": 4.066026, "relative_strength": -20.918288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.438623, "energy": 64.251301, "activity_lines": [ 2.122667, 2.228545, 2.283095, 2.316086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.08, "volume": 125567, "typical_volume": 160306.85, "trend": 2.38, "fair_value": 4.060769, "relative_strength": -19.971485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.119368, "energy": 62.001851, "activity_lines": [ 2.092667, 2.193091, 2.264238, 2.294796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.06, "volume": 156384, "typical_volume": 155003.0, "trend": 2.353667, "fair_value": 4.055385, "relative_strength": -20.835884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.293027, "energy": 61.454272, "activity_lines": [ 2.076, 2.158182, 2.244333, 2.274151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }