{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26751f59-f1ac-4c58-9796-05d4b07f33e1", "symbol": "INFBN", "name": "Horizon Kinetics Full-Cycle Inflation Equity UCITS ETF USD Share Class", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.015, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.919, "architecture_energy": 30.813, "architecture_maturity": 29.362, "architecture_confidence": 65.697, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.66, "rotation_up": 60.07, "upward_expansion": 33.27, "deceleration": 46.71, "rotation_down": 14.45, "downward_expansion": 19.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.856667, 43.225129, 43.433251, 43.588455 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.200001, "trend_reference": 43.488579, "distance_from_trend": 0.039353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.907528, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224682, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.003076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090714, "excess_performance": -0.025948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043293, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224682, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.162737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5707, "relative_activity": 1.45583, "balance": 2.162737, "dry_up": 1.098059, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02452, "annualized_volatility": 0.139443, "from_high_reference": -0.040986, "from_low_reference": 0.291783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.488579, "fair_value_reference": 36.907528, "structural_low": 41.029999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084016, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057354, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021321, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041235, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 29.627651, 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56.075801, "activity_lines": [ 42.236481, 42.747578, 43.44896, 43.403126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.560001, "volume": 9852, "typical_volume": 3665.8, "trend": 42.865835, "fair_value": 36.702981, "relative_strength": -5.010634, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.214622, "energy": 35.238079, "activity_lines": [ 42.363947, 42.623267, 43.321067, 43.393932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.59, "volume": 1409, "typical_volume": 3670.6, "trend": 43.061965, "fair_value": 36.767953, "relative_strength": -2.594763, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.865098, "energy": 11.074411, "activity_lines": [ 42.812667, 42.716156, 43.306386, 43.440652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.41, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": 3670.8, "trend": 43.257089, "fair_value": 36.830028, "relative_strength": -3.813013, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.691206, "energy": 10.746633, "activity_lines": [ 43.094, 42.79387, 43.282683, 43.463106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.200001, "volume": 5707, "typical_volume": 3920.1, "trend": 43.488579, "fair_value": 36.907528, "relative_strength": -1.003076, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.919148, "energy": 30.812655, "activity_lines": [ 43.856667, 43.225129, 43.433251, 43.588455 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }