{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2678f0ad-582b-456b-905f-45074a170aae", "symbol": "MA", "name": "Mastercard Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.833, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.765, "architecture_energy": 80.995, "architecture_maturity": 13.447, "architecture_confidence": 60.056, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.02, "rotation_up": 82.3, "upward_expansion": 96.35, "deceleration": 39.07, "rotation_down": 8.46, "downward_expansion": 18.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 556.004667, 539.837961, 521.87869, 516.623 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 562.95, "trend_reference": 515.009915, "distance_from_trend": 0.093086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 498.390569, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129536, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.810386, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.027668, "excess_performance": -0.097957, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020802, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129536, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111797, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068104, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027668, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703351, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15183917, "relative_activity": 0.882154, "balance": 0.703351, "dry_up": 0.900521, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044586, "annualized_volatility": 0.213311, "from_high_reference": -0.060213, "from_low_reference": 0.213911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 515.009915, "fair_value_reference": 498.390569, "structural_low": 463.748858, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01413, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.013165, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.096808, "worst_return": -0.121643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010768, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104075, "worst_return": -0.037132, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022587, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.06141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195721, "worst_return": -0.103725, "sufficient": false }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 539.66, "volume": 12445288, "typical_volume": 17182335.5, "trend": 515.003504, "fair_value": 496.068312, "relative_strength": -7.242149, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.577727, "energy": 58.831673, "activity_lines": [ 535.206715, 520.370485, 510.097335, 509.806871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 573.1, "volume": 18899730, "typical_volume": 17392673.3, "trend": 515.396494, "fair_value": 497.273421, "relative_strength": -2.230165, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.706268, "energy": 74.190346, "activity_lines": [ 549.794305, 531.704769, 516.652224, 513.555032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 562.95, "volume": 15183917, "typical_volume": 17212314.6, "trend": 515.009915, "fair_value": 498.390569, "relative_strength": -6.810386, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.765408, "energy": 80.994904, "activity_lines": [ 556.004667, 539.837961, 521.87869, 516.623 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }