{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2679faed-b441-4d7a-9f2b-76c10f444d1b", "symbol": "HDD", "name": "Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.55, "architecture_energy": 30.087, "architecture_maturity": 6.784, "architecture_confidence": 92.729, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.23, "rotation_up": 20.22, "upward_expansion": 6.09, "deceleration": 43.25, "rotation_down": 52.67, "downward_expansion": 79.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.3874, 1.398273, 1.415457, 1.424385 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.462, "trend_reference": 1.476467, "distance_from_trend": -0.009798, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.341888, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08951, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.766387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030504, "excess_performance": -0.095144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009798, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109149, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023729, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023082, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030504, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.01393, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4148905, "relative_activity": 0.95389, "balance": 1.01393, "dry_up": 0.756008, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074345, "annualized_volatility": 0.46614, "from_high_reference": -0.390833, "from_low_reference": 0.133333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.476467, "fair_value_reference": 1.341888, "structural_low": 1.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.002409, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009196, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.311243, "worst_return": -0.277975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.022139, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05054, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.424091, "worst_return": -0.244078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02502, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.063557, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.285816, "worst_return": -0.277549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"fair_value": 1.343548, "relative_strength": -23.782443, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.996304, "energy": 25.459743, "activity_lines": [ 1.423067, 1.4318, 1.431914, 1.464161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.329, "volume": 3310100, "typical_volume": 4563986.75, "trend": 1.539567, "fair_value": 1.342548, "relative_strength": -25.375666, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.21195, "energy": 50.376726, "activity_lines": [ 1.381467, 1.413309, 1.423167, 1.449155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.352, "volume": 2840677, "typical_volume": 4471129.4, "trend": 1.5173, "fair_value": 1.341843, "relative_strength": -24.634956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.395204, "energy": 55.669468, "activity_lines": [ 1.3634, 1.401036, 1.41711, 1.437054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.353, "volume": 2853227, "typical_volume": 4494817.35, "trend": 1.494067, "fair_value": 1.341433, "relative_strength": -25.404209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.013043, "energy": 56.291276, "activity_lines": [ 1.355533, 1.389764, 1.411214, 1.426454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.462, "volume": 4148905, "typical_volume": 4349458.4, "trend": 1.476467, "fair_value": 1.341888, "relative_strength": -20.766387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.550367, "energy": 30.087187, "activity_lines": [ 1.3874, 1.398273, 1.415457, 1.424385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }