{ "ticker": { "uuid": "267bf05a-8399-4ca9-9114-a93769ad3121", "symbol": "UC82", "name": "UBS BBG US Liquid Corp 1-5 UCITS ETF hGBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 53.32, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.626, "architecture_energy": 12.849, "architecture_maturity": 28.228, "architecture_confidence": 60.591, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.89, "rotation_up": 18.27, "upward_expansion": 15.85, "deceleration": 59.19, "rotation_down": 40.98, "downward_expansion": 58.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 1245.75, 1246.445455, 1245.860714, 1245.869224 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1248.5, "trend_reference": 1248.470886, "distance_from_trend": 2.3e-05, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1255.389995, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005488, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.243766, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019607, "excess_performance": -0.070842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 2.3e-05, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004583, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00259, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019607, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.296063, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35687, "relative_activity": 1.353452, "balance": 0.296063, "dry_up": 0.769037, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004471, "annualized_volatility": 0.035624, "from_high_reference": -0.021075, "from_low_reference": 0.015041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1248.470886, "fair_value_reference": 1255.389995, "structural_low": 1230.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.001004, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.001088, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.008583, "worst_return": -0.036684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006677, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.006229, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.010181, "worst_return": -0.026467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004007, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.046368, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.016201, "worst_return": -0.021999, 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"activity_lines": [ 1247.966667, 1247.018182, 1245.661905, 1246.842768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1242.5, "volume": 19509, "typical_volume": 27519.8, "trend": 1249.952193, "fair_value": 1255.36373, "relative_strength": -7.91123, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.535448, "energy": 15.607778, "activity_lines": [ 1246.133333, 1246.436364, 1245.494048, 1246.31097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1243.75, "volume": 17026, "typical_volume": 26460.75, "trend": 1249.144869, "fair_value": 1255.354437, "relative_strength": -8.624858, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.33386, "energy": 21.525109, "activity_lines": [ 1244.933333, 1246.036364, 1245.465476, 1245.910829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1248.5, "volume": 35687, "typical_volume": 26367.4, "trend": 1248.470886, "fair_value": 1255.389995, "relative_strength": -8.243766, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.625591, "energy": 12.849455, "activity_lines": [ 1245.75, 1246.445455, 1245.860714, 1245.869224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }